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SOURCE: AFI

A recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that India’s nuclear arsenal has surpassed Pakistan’s for the first time. This development reignites discussions about India’s nuclear posture and future plans.

India’s nuclear stockpile currently stands at over 172 warheads, edging out Pakistan’s estimated 170. Factors contributing to this rise include the successful test of the Agni-5 MkII missile with Multiple Independently Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) and the expansion of the Arihant-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) fleet.

The Arihant-class submarines are crucial for India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence. Two such submarines are already operational, with two more advanced S4 and S4* variants under development. These new submarines will necessitate a larger stockpile of deployable nuclear warheads.

While the exact size of India’s planned nuclear arsenal remains unclear, some analysts suggest it could reach 250 warheads. This expansion is likely driven by the desire to match China’s growing nuclear stockpile, currently estimated at over 400 warheads.

India’s nuclear posture should be based on a credible minimum deterrence strategy, ensuring a secure and stable regional environment.