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A recent assessment by US intelligence agencies has raised concerns about the possibility of armed conflict between India and China, as well as between India and Pakistan. The annual threat assessment, released by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), highlights the volatile nature of the border disputes and the potential for miscalculation and escalation.

According to the report, the disputed border between India and China continues to strain their bilateral relationship. While significant cross-border clashes have not occurred since 2020, both sides maintain large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between opposing forces increase the risk of armed conflict. The report underscores the importance of avoiding miscalculation and de-escalating tensions to prevent a dangerous confrontation.

Furthermore, the assessment points to the possibility of armed conflict between India and Pakistan, particularly in the event of provocations from Islamabad. Despite a renewal of ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in early 2021, neither India nor Pakistan has utilized the period of calm to rebuild bilateral ties. Instead, both countries have focused on domestic priorities, including election preparations and addressing security concerns.

The report highlights Pakistan’s history of supporting anti-India militant groups and India’s willingness, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, to respond with military force to perceived provocations. This dynamic raises the risk of escalation during a crisis, with the potential for rapid escalation following an event triggering heightened tensions.