SOURCE: AFI
In a significant development that could escalate diplomatic tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan is reportedly considering withdrawing from the historic Shimla Agreement of 1972. This potential move comes in response to India’s recent steps to unilaterally modify its commitments under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), citing repeated Pakistani obstruction in project clearances and growing geopolitical hostility.
The Shimla Agreement, signed on July 2, 1972, between India and Pakistan following the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, laid the groundwork for peaceful resolution of disputes through bilateral dialogue. One of its core principles was the commitment by both nations to resolve issues through peaceful means without altering the Line of Control unilaterally.
Meanwhile, the Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has been a key pillar of water-sharing between the two countries. It allocates the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, while allowing India limited usage of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes.
In recent years, India has grown increasingly frustrated with Pakistan’s objections to Indian infrastructure projects on the western rivers, especially the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects. In response, New Delhi has taken concrete steps to modify its approach to the IWT, including notifying Pakistan of its intent to amend or withdraw from parts of the treaty due to Pakistan’s “non-cooperative” attitude.
India has also moved to maximize its permissible use of waters under the treaty, including building dams and barrages for power generation and irrigation, arguing that it is within the treaty’s limits. Officials in New Delhi argue that the treaty has been too generous to Pakistan and that its goodwill has not been reciprocated.
In response, Islamabad is now mulling the possibility of withdrawing from the Shimla Agreement, arguing that India has repeatedly undermined the bilateral framework established under the accord. According to unnamed sources in the Pakistani foreign ministry, the move is under “serious consideration,” especially as tensions continue to rise over Kashmir, border skirmishes, and India’s growing global alignment with Western powers.
Critics within Pakistan claim that India’s actions amount to violating the spirit of both treaties, thereby weakening the foundations for peaceful engagement. Some Pakistani analysts argue that withdrawing from Shimla would allow Pakistan to internationalize the Kashmir issue once again—something that the agreement discouraged by committing both nations to bilateral mechanisms.
If Pakistan proceeds with its withdrawal, it would represent a fundamental shift in South Asian geopolitics. The Shimla Agreement has long been cited by India to resist international intervention in bilateral issues, especially on Jammu and Kashmir.
Withdrawal from such a foundational accord could:
- Open the door to third-party mediation in Kashmir and other disputes.
- Signal a breakdown of diplomatic mechanisms that have helped prevent full-scale war since 1999.
- Add volatility to regional water security, as both countries rely on cross-border rivers for agriculture and energy.
However, experts also caution that such a move could backfire diplomatically for Pakistan, as India may then refuse any structured dialogue, citing the absence of a bilateral framework.
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