SOURCE: AFI
On April 22, 2025, a devastating terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam claimed at least 26 lives, primarily tourists, in one of the deadliest assaults on civilians in the region since the 2019 Pulwama attack. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was on an official visit to Saudi Arabia, cut short his trip and rushed back to Delhi to address the crisis. Notably, his aircraft, a Boeing 777-300ER, avoided Pakistani airspace on the return journey, opting for a longer route through the Gulf and Central Asia.
This decision, a departure from his outbound flight which traversed Pakistan, has sparked speculation: is this a routine security measure amid heightened tensions, or the opening move in a potential standoff with Islamabad? As India points fingers at Pakistan-based terror groups, the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) deployment of a Saab Erieye AEW&C and reported military movements near the border add fuel to an already volatile situation.
The attack in Pahalgam’s Baisaran Valley, a picturesque tourist destination, was carried out by armed gunmen who targeted Hindu tourists, killing 26 and injuring dozens. Indian authorities, including Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, described it as a “heinous” act, unprecedented in its scale against civilians. Prime Minister Modi, in a post on X, condemned the attack, vowing that “those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice… they will not be spared!”. The assault, claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a shadow group linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), has reignited accusations of Pakistan’s complicity in cross-border terrorism. Indian officials, including Home Minister Amit Shah, who rushed to Srinagar for a security review, have promised harsh consequences for the perpetrators.
The timing of the attack, coinciding with Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s presence in India, suggests a deliberate attempt to destabilize the region and undermine Kashmir’s tourism-driven economic recovery. Posts on X speculate that the attack may have been orchestrated by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to provoke a limited conflict, potentially bolstering the Pakistan Army’s domestic image amid economic and political unrest.
On his outbound journey to Jeddah, Modi’s aircraft traversed Pakistani airspace for approximately 46 minutes, a routine occurrence necessitated by the closure of Afghan airspace. However, on the return leg, the plane avoided Pakistan entirely, taking a longer route via Oman, Iran, and Central Asia, similar to detours used during periods of heightened tensions, such as in 2019 after the Balakot airstrike. Posts on X, including one from @MonitorPak, noted this shift, suggesting that Modi’s decision to forgo requesting Pakistani airspace permission reflects “zero communication” with Islamabad. Another user, @YusufDFI
, interpreted the detour as an indirect accusation of Pakistan’s role in the attack.
Historically, India-Pakistan airspace relations have been a barometer of bilateral tensions. Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian flights in February 2019 after the Balakot airstrike, denying Modi’s aircraft access for trips to Germany and Saudi Arabia. While Pakistan has since relaxed restrictions, granting permission for Modi’s flights in 2021 and 2024, the decision to avoid its airspace post-Pahalgam suggests heightened security concerns or a strategic signal. A senior Indian Aviation Ministry official noted in 2019 that such detours increase fuel costs and flight duration, indicating that the choice was not taken lightly.
The decision to avoid Pakistani airspace could be driven by several factors. Security concerns are paramount: given the attack’s scale and Pakistan’s alleged links to the perpetrators, Indian authorities may have deemed it risky to fly over Pakistani territory, especially with the PAF on high alert. In 2019, Pakistan shot down an Indian MiG-21 during a dogfight, highlighting the potential for miscalculation during tense periods. The detour minimizes exposure to such risks, ensuring the safety of the Prime Minister’s aircraft.
Alternatively, the move could be a diplomatic signal, underscoring India’s distrust of Pakistan and its resolve to hold Islamabad accountable. By avoiding airspace typically used under Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) of international civil aviation, India may be signaling a shift toward a harder stance, potentially foreshadowing military or diplomatic repercussions. Posts on X speculate that this could be the “opening move in a future standoff,” with India preparing to escalate pressure on Pakistan through international forums or targeted operations. The presence of U.S. Vice President Vance in Delhi and President Trump’s public support—“The United States stands strong with India against Terrorism”—bolster India’s position, potentially emboldening a stronger response.
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