SOURCE: AFI
In a significant update to its industrial plan on 11 March, Leonardo, one of the key partners in the three-nation Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), revealed a first-order estimate for the ambitious sixth-generation fighter jet program. The company disclosed that a total of 350 platform orders are expected for the joint venture by 2035, signaling strong confidence in the program’s future.
The GCAP, a collaborative effort between Italy, Japan, and the UK, aims to replace aging fourth- and fifth-generation fighters in the fleets of their respective air forces. An analysis of the current combat aircraft inventories of these nations suggests that Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) is likely to emerge as the largest operator of the new platform, driven by its substantial fleet replacement needs.
Leonardo’s announcement provides the first concrete estimate of the expected orders for the GCAP, a program that merges the UK-led Tempest project with Japan’s Mitsubishi F-X initiative, alongside Italy’s participation. The figure of 350 platform orders by 2035 reflects not only the replacement needs of the partner nations but also the potential for export opportunities as the sixth-generation fighter enters the global market. The GCAP aims to deliver a cutting-edge combat aircraft equipped with advanced stealth, sensor fusion, and networked warfare capabilities, positioning it as a competitor to other next-generation programs worldwide.
The estimate comes at a time when the GCAP partners are intensifying their collaboration. The program has already seen the establishment of the GCAP International Government Organisation (GIGO) and a joint venture between industry leaders—BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italy), and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)—to oversee development and production. With a target in-service date of 2035, the program is on track to replace aging fleets while fostering technological innovation and industrial growth across the three nations.
A closer look at the combat aircraft inventories of the GCAP partner nations reveals the scale of the replacement challenge and the potential distribution of orders. Together, the air forces of Japan, the UK, and Italy operate a combined total of approximately 630 fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, many of which will reach the end of their service lives by the mid-2030s.
- Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF): Japan’s fleet includes around 90 Mitsubishi F-2 fighters, a derivative of the F-16, and 199 F-15J/DJ Eagles, totaling nearly 300 aircraft. The F-2 fleet, in particular, is slated for retirement starting in the 2030s, as these aircraft, introduced in the early 2000s, approach the end of their operational lives. Additionally, some of the older F-15Js, which entered service in the 1980s, are also likely candidates for replacement or upgrades. Japan’s substantial fleet size and aging aircraft position the JASDF as the largest potential operator of the GCAP platform.
- Royal Air Force (RAF): The UK operates a fleet of around 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 30 F-35B Lightning IIs as of early 2025. While the F-35s are relatively new and expected to remain in service for decades, the Typhoons, particularly the earlier tranches, will require replacement by the late 2030s or early 2040s. The GCAP is explicitly designed to succeed the Typhoon in RAF service, suggesting a significant portion of the 350 orders could be allocated to the UK.
- Italian Air Force (Aeronautica Militare): Italy’s fleet comprises approximately 93 Eurofighter Typhoons and around 25 F-35A/B variants in active service, with more F-35s on order. Like the RAF, Italy plans to replace its Typhoons with the GCAP platform over time, although its smaller fleet size compared to Japan indicates a relatively smaller share of the total orders.
Given the composition and age of its current fleet, Japan is poised to be the largest operator of the GCAP platform. The JASDF’s 90 F-2 fighters are a primary target for replacement, as these aircraft are nearing obsolescence and lack the stealth and networking capabilities required for modern air combat. Additionally, while Japan has upgraded some of its F-15Js to the advanced “Super Interceptor” standard, many of the older airframes are unlikely to remain viable beyond the 2030s. This could push Japan’s replacement needs closer to 150–200 units, depending on strategic priorities and budget allocations.
Moreover, Japan’s acquisition of 147 F-35s (including both A and B variants) in recent years indicates a willingness to invest heavily in next-generation fighters. The GCAP platform, tailored to Japan’s specific operational requirements and developed with significant input from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, aligns with Tokyo’s push for greater indigenous defense capabilities. As a result, Japan could account for nearly half of the projected 350 orders, reinforcing its role as the program’s largest beneficiary.
For Italy and the UK, the GCAP represents an opportunity to maintain their edge in air combat while fostering industrial collaboration. The RAF’s Typhoon fleet and Italy’s Eurofighters will likely require replacement on a smaller scale than Japan’s F-2s and F-15s, with each nation potentially ordering 80–120 units. However, both countries also operate the F-35, which will remain a core component of their fleets beyond 2035, potentially reducing the number of GCAP platforms needed compared to Japan.
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