SOURCE: AFI
Recent satellite imagery from Karachi in March 2025 has exposed a critical vulnerability in the Pakistan Navy’s subsurface capabilities, with only two of its five operational submarines currently in the water. The remaining three are either undergoing prolonged maintenance and upgrade cycles or are stranded on land, raising serious questions about Pakistan’s naval readiness amid escalating tensions with India. This development, combined with Pakistan’s reported suspension of the Shimla Agreement and consideration of withdrawing from the Tashkent Agreement, paints a picture of a navy struggling to maintain its strategic edge in the Arabian Sea.
Satellite imagery from Karachi’s naval docks, shared widely on X in late April 2025, reveals a stark reality for the Pakistan Navy. Two of its five operational submarines—comprising two Agosta-70 (Hashmat-class) and three Agosta-90B (Khalid-class) vessels—are docked for extensive maintenance and upgrades, with cycles that remain ongoing as of April 25, 2025. A third submarine, likely one of the Agosta-90B class, is out of the water entirely, positioned on land at the Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW) for repairs or modernization. This leaves only two submarines—potentially one Agosta-70 and one Agosta-90B—operational, significantly weakening Pakistan’s underwater warfare capabilities.
(PNS Hashmat and PNS Hurmat), commissioned in 1979–1980, equipped with MESMA air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems but plagued by aging infrastructure. Reports indicate PNS Hurmat has a faulty starboard engine and electronic warfare system, rendering it non-operational. (PNS Khalid, PNS Saad, and PNS Hamza), commissioned between 1999 and 2008, featuring advanced MESMA AIP systems. These are undergoing mid-life upgrades by Turkey’s STM, with PNS Hamza delivered in 2020, but the remaining two are still in progress.
The imagery aligns with posts on X, which describe the situation as “not a good time for the PN subsurface fleet,” with some users calling the docked submarines a “juicy target” for potential adversaries.
This revelation comes at a precarious moment for Pakistan-India relations. Following the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 civilians, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, downgraded diplomatic ties, and closed the Attari-Wagah border. Pakistan responded by suspending the Shimla Agreement, a 1972 accord that established bilateral dispute resolution and recognized the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Reports also suggest Pakistan is contemplating withdrawing from the Tashkent Agreement of 1966, a largely symbolic move given its diminished relevance post-Shimla.
The weakened state of Pakistan’s submarine fleet could embolden India, which has deployed its Kalvari-class submarines along Pakistan’s Makran coast and near Karachi in past operations, such as during the 2019 Balakot crisis. India’s navy, despite its own challenges with Project-75I delays, operates 16 conventional submarines, including six advanced Scorpene-class vessels, giving it a numerical and technological edge.
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