SOURCE: AFI
The Indian Air Force (IAF) finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a rapid decline in squadron strength that has left it dangerously overstretched. With an authorized strength of 42 squadrons, the IAF is currently operating at a mere 31—a number that analysts warn could dip further without swift corrective action.
While external factors like production delays and geopolitical complexities play a role, much of the blame lies squarely with the IAF’s own indecision and procrastination. From stalling critical upgrades to the Su-30MKI fleet to hesitating on orders for the indigenous Tejas Mk1 despite its Initial Operational Clearance (IOC), and taking nearly a decade to define requirements for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the IAF’s leadership has contributed significantly to the mess it now faces.
The Su-30MKI, the backbone of the IAF’s combat fleet with over 260 units in service, is a case study in missed opportunities. This versatile Russian-origin fighter has been a reliable workhorse, but its technology—rooted in late 1990s and early 2000s designs—has lagged behind modern threats. Plans to upgrade the fleet with advanced avionics, new radars like the indigenous Uttam AESA, and enhanced weaponry have been discussed for years, yet progress remains glacial. A proposed “Super Sukhoi” upgrade package, aimed at boosting the jet’s electronic warfare capabilities and integrating long-range missiles like the BrahMos, has been stuck in bureaucratic limbo. The IAF’s failure to prioritize and expedite this program has left the Su-30MKI increasingly vulnerable to adversaries equipped with fifth-generation fighters and advanced air defense systems, such as China’s J-20 and Pakistan’s evolving capabilities.
Equally perplexing is the IAF’s reluctance to fully embrace the Tejas Mk1, India’s homegrown light combat aircraft. When the Tejas achieved IOC in 2013, it marked a milestone for indigenous defense production—a lightweight, agile fighter ready to fill gaps in the IAF’s depleting roster. Yet, instead of capitalizing on this achievement and placing substantial orders to bolster numbers, the IAF dithered. Initial orders trickled in—40 aircraft across two batches—but the force hesitated to commit fully, citing concerns over performance and delays in achieving Final Operational Clearance (FOC). Critics argue this skepticism undermined Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), slowed production momentum, and delayed the Tejas’s integration into active squadrons. Had the IAF acted decisively post-IOC, the Tejas Mk1 could have mitigated the retirement of aging MiG-21s and MiG-27s, preserving squadron strength.
The AMCA program, India’s ambitious bid for a fifth-generation stealth fighter, further exposes the IAF’s planning woes. Conceived as a long-term solution to counter regional threats, the AMCA’s requirements took nearly a decade to finalize, with the IAF only approving the project’s preliminary design in 2019. This sluggish pace contrasts sharply with the rapid advancements of rivals like China, whose J-20 entered service in 2017. The IAF’s indecision—debating stealth features, engine options, and weaponry—has pushed the AMCA’s first flight to the late 2020s at best, with operational induction unlikely before the mid-2030s. In the interim, the IAF’s squadron strength continues to erode, with no immediate replacement for retiring fleets.
The consequences of these delays are stark. The IAF’s current 31 squadrons face a two-front challenge from Pakistan and China, both of whom have modernized their air forces at a faster clip. The retirement of legacy aircraft, coupled with slow induction rates—only 83 Tejas Mk1A units ordered in 2021 after years of deliberation—has left the IAF reliant on an aging fleet of Mirage 2000s, Jaguars, and MiG-29s alongside the Su-30MKIs. Meanwhile, HAL’s production capacity remains underutilized, and the AMCA remains a distant dream.
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