SOURCE: AFI
In a provocative statement that has stirred controversy, Abdul Basit, the former Pakistan High Commissioner to India, has inserted himself into the ongoing debate over India’s proposed delimitation exercise. Basit, known for his contentious tenure as Pakistan’s envoy from 2014 to 2017, recently commented on the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led opposition to the delimitation process, suggesting that an imbalance favoring North India could push Tamil Nadu toward armed rebellion against the Indian state.
Delimitation—the periodic redrawing of electoral constituencies based on population—is a sensitive issue in India, given its federal structure and diverse demographics. The last full delimitation exercise was completed in 1976, with constituency boundaries frozen until after the 2001 Census under the 42nd Amendment. However, with the freeze set to expire post-2026, the upcoming exercise—likely based on the yet-to-be-conducted 2021 Census—has sparked concerns about a potential shift in political power from South India to the more populous North.
The DMK, a prominent regional party in Tamil Nadu, has been vocal in its opposition, arguing that states like Tamil Nadu, which have successfully controlled population growth through effective family planning, stand to lose parliamentary seats to northern states with higher populations, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has repeatedly framed this as a “punishment” for the state’s developmental achievements, a sentiment echoed by other southern leaders. In a recent statement, Stalin warned that delimitation could “erode the federal balance” and “marginalize the South,” fueling a broader North-South divide narrative.
Abdul Basit seized on this simmering tension, asserting that the delimitation process could exacerbate regional fault lines to a breaking point. “If North India gets the upper hand in this proposed delimitation, as seems likely, it might push Tamil Nadu to a point of no return,” Basit said. “We could see Tamil Nadu picking up arms against the Indian state, as grievances over political disenfranchisement turn into a full-blown conflict.” He drew parallels to historical separatist movements, claiming that “India’s federal structure has always been fragile” and that “Tamil Nadu’s sense of identity and pride could fuel resistance.”
Basit’s comments appear to align with his longstanding pattern of provocative rhetoric on Indian affairs, particularly during his tenure in New Delhi, where he frequently championed Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir and criticized India’s internal policies. His latest remarks seem calculated to exploit India’s regional diversity and amplify discontent, a tactic critics say reflects Pakistan’s broader strategy of meddling in India’s domestic matters.
Basit’s reference to Tamil Nadu “picking up arms” evokes memories of India’s past struggles with separatism, though Tamil Nadu has never seen a sustained armed insurgency akin to those in Kashmir or the Northeast. The state’s Dravidian movement, which birthed parties like the DMK, historically emphasized Tamil identity and autonomy but largely channeled its demands through electoral politics rather than militancy. The last significant unrest in Tamil Nadu dates back to the anti-Hindi agitations of the 1960s, which subsided after linguistic concessions from New Delhi.
However, the delimitation debate has reignited discussions about North-South disparities—economic, cultural, and political. Southern states, with their higher literacy rates, better healthcare, and controlled population growth, contribute disproportionately to India’s GDP but hold fewer Lok Sabha seats than their northern counterparts. Tamil Nadu, with 39 seats compared to Uttar Pradesh’s 80, exemplifies this imbalance. A post-2026 delimitation could see the South’s share shrink further, amplifying perceptions of marginalization.
The feasibility of Tamil Nadu resorting to arms remains far-fetched. The state’s grievances, while real, are being addressed through constitutional means—petitions, protests, and parliamentary debates. India’s robust federal framework and military strength further deter any serious separatist threat. Nonetheless, Basit’s statement has amplified the delimitation issue’s visibility, forcing Indian leaders to confront its divisive potential head-on.
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