SOURCE: AFI
India’s nuclear weapons program is a subject of significant strategic interest, with the country’s ability to produce weapon-grade plutonium playing a critical role in its nuclear deterrence. This article estimates India’s nuclear weapons-producing capacity by analyzing the plutonium production from various reactors.
The Tarapur Atomic Power Station, comprising units 3 and 4, each with a capacity of 550 MWe, contributes to India’s plutonium production. The following calculation estimates the amount of plutonium produced:
Annual Production per Reactor:
550MWe×0.7×310×0.3×0.001=35.805kg/year
Total Production over 19 Years for Two Reactors:
35.805kg/year×19×2=1,360.59kg
Thus, the total plutonium produced by Tarapur 3 and 4 over 19 years is estimated at 1,360.59 kg.
Plutonium Production from Kaiga and Madras Reactors
The Kaiga (units 2, 3, and 4) and Madras (units 1 and 2) reactors, each with a capacity of 220 MWe, are also significant contributors. The following calculation estimates their plutonium production:
Annual Production per Reactor:
220MWe×0.7×310×0.3×0.001=14.322kg/year
Total Production over 106 Years for Six Reactors:
4.322kg/year×106×6=9,108.792kg
Thus, the total plutonium produced by Kaiga and Madras reactors is estimated at 9,108.792 kg.
Total Unsafeguarded Weapon-Grade Plutonium
The combined total of unsafeguarded weapon-grade plutonium from both reactor groups is:
1,360.59kg+9,108.792kg=10,469.382kg
This figure represents the total amount of plutonium that could potentially be utilized for weapons production.
Reprocessed Plutonium and Reactor Core Requirements
India’s estimated total reprocessed plutonium stands at 5.1 metric tons (5,181.84 kg). Additionally, 1.9 metric tons (1,930.49 kg) of plutonium is required for the initial loading of reactor cores.
Plutonium Available for Weaponization
Subtracting the reprocessed plutonium and the amount used for reactor cores from the total unsafeguarded plutonium:
10,469.382kg?5.1metric tons?1.9metric tons=3,358kg
This leaves 3,358 kg of plutonium available for potential weaponization.
Estimated Nuclear Weapons Capacity
Assuming that 4 kg of plutonium is required per nuclear weapon, the total number of nuclear weapons India could potentially produce with the available plutonium is:
4kg/weapon3,358kg?=839 nuclear weapons
India’s estimated nuclear weapons-producing capacity, based on current plutonium production and reprocessing capabilities, suggests that the country could potentially produce up to 839 nuclear weapons. This estimation underscores the significant role of India’s reactor network in maintaining and expanding its nuclear deterrence capabilities.