SOURCE: AFI
A report by the Baku-based Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a think-tank closely aligned with Azerbaijan’s military establishment, has raised concerns about the effectiveness of India’s Akash surface-to-air missile (SAM) system in countering Turkish-supplied unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) used by Azerbaijan in recent clashes with Armenia.
The report, cited in Indian media and discussed in regional security forums, underscores the strategic implications of India’s $720 million deal to supply 15 Akash SAM systems to Armenia, finalized in 2022 and with deliveries commencing in November 2024. As Armenia bolsters its air defenses to counter Azerbaijan’s drone-centric warfare, the AIR Center’s analysis highlights the tactical challenges posed by the Akash system and its potential to alter the balance in the South Caucasus conflict, while reflecting Azerbaijan’s broader unease over India’s growing defence ties with Yerevan.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, particularly the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, showcased the transformative role of UAVs, with Azerbaijan’s Turkish-supplied Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli Harop loitering munitions delivering decisive battlefield advantages. The TB2, a medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) drone with a 12-hour endurance and four laser-guided MAM-L missiles, devastated Armenian tanks, artillery, and S-300 air defence systems, contributing to Baku’s victory. The Washington Post noted that Azerbaijan’s drone strikes “provided a huge advantage,” destroying 185 Armenian T-72 tanks and 26 SAM systems, per Oryx blog tallies. Azerbaijan’s recent acquisition of the more advanced Bayraktar Ak?nc?, capable of carrying long-range cruise missiles like Roketsan’s SOM and Cakir, further enhances its aerial dominance, as reported by Forbes on February 22, 2024.
Armenia, reeling from its 2020 losses and frustrated by Russia’s failure to deliver $400 million in ordered weapons, has turned to India to modernize its arsenal. The Akash SAM system, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), is a cornerstone of this effort. With a range of 25–30 kilometers and an 18-kilometer altitude ceiling, the Akash 1S variant, equipped with an indigenous radio frequency (RF) seeker, can engage multiple targets, including UAVs, cruise missiles, and fighter jets, with an 88–99% kill probability. Armenia’s $720 million contract for 15 Akash systems, alongside Pinaka rocket launchers and Zen Technologies’ $41.5 million anti-drone system, reflects a strategic pivot to counter Azerbaijan’s drone-heavy tactics.
he AIR Center’s report, backed by Azerbaijan’s military analysts, acknowledges the Akash system’s technical capabilities as a potential threat to its UAV operations. The Akash’s Rajendra 3D phased array radar can track 64 targets and guide 12 missiles simultaneously, making it well-suited to counter low- to medium-altitude threats like the TB2, which operates at 5,500–8,000 meters. The system’s dual-guidance mechanism—command guidance for mid-course and active seeker for terminal phase—enhances its precision against maneuvering targets, a critical feature against agile UAVs. Posts on X from April 2024 by @Arbaletintel praised the Akash, stating, “Akash should be able to successfully intercept Azerbaijani AF TB-2 UCAVs at ranges outside of MAM-C, L payload delivery,” suggesting it could neutralize drones before they deploy munitions.
The report highlights the TB2’s vulnerabilities, noting its slow speed (220 km/h) and large radar cross-section make it susceptible to modern SAMs like the Akash, unlike faster jets or stealthier platforms. During the 2020 war, Azerbaijan mitigated these weaknesses by using Soviet-era An-2 biplanes as decoys to exhaust Armenian air defences, a tactic less effective against the Akash’s multi-target engagement and ECCM features. However, the AIR Center cautions that the Akash’s effectiveness depends on Armenia’s ability to integrate it into a layered defence network, protect radar sites from Ak?nc? strikes, and train operators to counter coordinated drone swarms, a hallmark of Azerbaijan’s strategy.
The Ak?nc?, with its 1,500-kilometer range and ability to launch standoff munitions, poses a greater challenge. The AIR Center notes that its higher altitude (up to 12,000 meters) and cruise missile capabilities could test the Akash’s 18-kilometer ceiling, potentially allowing Azerbaijan to strike from beyond the SAM’s range. A retired Indian Air Force official, quoted anonymously by Eurasian Times on February 18, 2024, asserted that “Akash missiles could devastate Turkish-origin TB2 and Ak?nc? drones,” but the report questions whether Armenia’s limited defence infrastructure can fully leverage this capability.
The AIR Center’s report reflects Azerbaijan’s broader unease over India’s defence exports to Armenia, which President Ilham Aliyev called an “unfriendly move” in January 2023. Baku views India’s support as part of a strategic alignment with Armenia, driven by shared concerns over the Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan axis, which supports Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. Armenia’s endorsement of India’s position on Kashmir and its backing for a permanent UN Security Council seat further tilt the scales, as noted by Eurasian Times on April 24, 2024.
The Akash deal, valued at $600–720 million by 2024–25 per India’s Finance Ministry, positions Armenia as India’s largest weapons importer, surpassing traditional Russian dominance (94% of Armenia’s arms from 2011–2020). The AIR Center warns that the Akash could alter the tactical calculus in the South Caucasus, potentially deterring Azerbaijan’s drone strikes or forcing it to adapt with more sophisticated countermeasures, such as electronic warfare or swarm tactics. Posts on X emphasized this shift, with @Arbaletintel noting, “Indian Akash SAMs will be the big killer here… critical in neutralizing Azerbaijani-Turkish UCAV, LM, & cruise missile threats.”
However, the report argues that Armenia’s defensive acquisitions, including France’s Mistral SAMs and India’s Zen anti-drone systems, are unlikely to fundamentally shift the military balance, given Azerbaijan’s superior arsenal and oil-funded modernization. Azerbaijan’s 2024 defence budget of $3.8 billion dwarfs Armenia’s $1.4–1.5 billion, enabling continued investment in Turkish and Israeli systems. The AIR Center suggests that Azerbaijan may counter the Akash threat by enhancing Ak?nc? deployments, integrating electronic countermeasures, or procuring advanced air defence systems like Israel’s Barak-8, used effectively in 2020.
India’s supply of Akash systems to Armenia is part of a broader strategic outreach in the South Caucasus, countering the Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan axis while securing access to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) via Armenia. Abhinav Pandya of the Usanas Foundation told ETV Bharat, “India needs to counter that trilateral axis… this is why India is supplying defence equipment to Armenia.” The deal also boosts India’s defence export ambitions, with the Akash attracting interest from Brazil, Egypt, Vietnam, and the Philippines, following a record $2.5 billion in exports in 2023–24.
For Azerbaijan, the Akash’s deployment heightens tensions, as evidenced by Aliyev’s April 2024 warning that Baku “will not sit idly by” while India and France arm Armenia. The AIR Center’s report cautions that escalating arms races could destabilize the fragile Russia-brokered ceasefire, especially as Moscow’s influence wanes amid the Ukraine conflict. Armenia’s shift to India and Western suppliers like France reflects a diversification strategy, but the report questions whether Yerevan can operationalize these systems effectively against Azerbaijan’s battle-tested drone tactics.
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