SOURCE: AFI
Pakistan’s Air Force (PAF) finds itself at a crossroads, juggling modernization ambitions with the realities of an aging fleet. Despite buzz about acquiring advanced Chinese fighters—the J-10CE and the fifth-generation J-35A—Pakistan remains steadfast in its desire to bolster its F-16 inventory with additional Block 52 jets. This pursuit intensified amid rumors that the United States might sell F-35A stealth fighters to India, prompting Islamabad to seek 18 to 36 more F-16s in Block 50 or V configurations. With a fleet dominated by older Mid-Life Update (MLU) Block 15/20 jets nearing the end of their service life, and a small contingent of newer Block 50/52 aircraft, the PAF is racing to sustain its combat edge beyond 2030-35.
The F-16 Fighting Falcon has long been the PAF’s premier fighter, a symbol of its qualitative edge since the first Block 15 jets arrived in 1982 under the Peace Gate programs. Today, the fleet totals around 76 aircraft: 45 MLU-upgraded Block 15/20 jets, 13 ex-Jordanian Block 15 Air Defense Fighters (ADF), and 18 newer Block 50/52 jets delivered between 2010 and 2012 via the Peace Drive initiative. The Block 50/52 aircraft, equipped with AN/APG-68(V)9 radars and AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs, remain the PAF’s most capable platforms, boasting a service life that could extend well into the 2030s with proper maintenance.
However, the bulk of the fleet—those MLU Block 15/20 jets—is over 40 years old. Originally delivered in the 1980s, these airframes underwent a Mid-Life Update in the 2000s, courtesy of U.S. assistance and Turkish facilities, boosting them to a Block 50-like standard with modern avionics and beyond-visual-range (BVR) capabilities. Yet, their structural fatigue is undeniable, and spare parts shortages, a lingering issue from past U.S. sanctions, continue to haunt their operational readiness. By 2030-35, most will retire, leaving the PAF with just 18 Block 50/52 jets—a number too small to meet the demands of a high-tempo regional threat environment.
Compounding the challenge is the limited stockpile of Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missiles (BVRAAMs) for the MLU fleet. While the Block 50/52 jets can wield the AIM-120C-5, with a range exceeding 100 kilometers, the older MLU jets rely on dwindling supplies of these U.S.-made missiles, restricted by end-user agreements and geopolitical sensitivities. To address this, the PAF has turned to Turkey, a NATO ally with a burgeoning defense industry, to integrate Turkish-developed BVRAAMs onto its MLU Block 15/20 aircraft.
Turkey’s Gökdo?an (Peregrine) missile, a BVR weapon with an estimated range of 65-100 kilometers, is a leading candidate. Developed by TÜB?TAK SAGE, it features an active radar seeker and could provide a cost-effective alternative to the AMRAAMs, easing dependence on U.S. supplies. This collaboration, rooted in Pakistan’s strong defense ties with Turkey, also aligns with efforts to diversify munitions sources—a lesson learned from sanctions in the 1990s. However, retrofitting 40-year-old airframes with new missiles is a temporary fix; the jets’ fading airframes can’t outrun time.
This brings us to Pakistan’s keen interest in acquiring 18-36 additional F-16 Block 50 or V jets. The Block 50/52 configuration, with its proven combat record and robust lifecycle, offers immediate interoperability with the PAF’s existing infrastructure—maintenance facilities at Kamra, trained crews, and a mature logistics chain. The Block V, an evolution of the Block 70/72 standard, adds an AN/APG-83 AESA radar and enhanced survivability, bridging the gap to fifth-generation capabilities without the political baggage of stealth fighters like the F-35.
The PAF’s push for more F-16s gained urgency amid whispers of a U.S.-India F-35A deal. While no such sale has been confirmed as of February 2025, India’s acquisition of 36 Rafale jets and its pursuit of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) have rattled Islamabad. A handful of Block 50/52 jets—operating solo after the MLU fleet retires—would strain the PAF’s ability to counter India’s growing air power. Doubling or tripling that number to 36-54 jets would sustain the F-16 as a credible deterrent through 2035, buying time for next-generation plans to mature.
Parallel to this, Pakistan has embraced Chinese platforms. The J-10CE, a 4.5-generation fighter inducted in 2022, brings AESA radar and PL-15 missiles (export-limited to 200 km range) to the PAF’s arsenal, with 20 delivered and plans for up to 60 total. Talks of the J-35A—a carrier-capable fifth-generation stealth jet—surfaced in January 2024, with Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu hinting at its “near future” induction. Touted as an evolution of the FC-31, the J-35A promises stealth, advanced sensors, and a modern weapons suite, potentially outclassing the F-16 Block 50/52.
Yet, the J-35A remains in development, with operational readiness for China’s navy projected post-2030. Export to Pakistan could lag further, and integrating a new type—distinct from the PAF’s Western-leaning F-16 ecosystem—poses logistical hurdles. The J-10CE, while potent, lacks the F-16’s maturity and global support network. For all the talk of Chinese advancements, the PAF seems to view them as a long-term complement, not an immediate replacement, for its F-16 core.
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