SOURCE: AFI
The Indian Air Force (IAF) faces an unprecedented challenge: preparing for a potential two-front war against Pakistan and China, two adversaries with growing military capabilities and a history of coordination against India. With its fighter squadron strength dwindling to 31 against a sanctioned 42, the IAF has often found itself mired in debates over procurement delays and shortages.
However, instead of fixating on the slow pace of acquiring new combat aircraft, the IAF must leverage the Centre’s allocated capital to bolster its force multipliers—assets that enhance combat effectiveness without solely relying on numbers. This strategic shift is critical to deter and defeat threats from both western and eastern fronts.
The IAF’s fighter strength has been a sore point for years. Legacy aircraft like the MiG-21, MiG-23, and MiG-27 are being phased out, while replacements—the indigenous Tejas LCA, French Rafale, and potential contenders like the MMRCA 2.0—arrive at a glacial pace. By March 2025, the IAF operates just 31 squadrons, far below the 42 needed to counter a combined Pakistan-China threat. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fields around 20 squadrons, increasingly bolstered by Chinese J-10C and potential 5th-generation J-35A fighters, while the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) boasts over 50 fighter squadrons, including stealthy J-20s. This numerical disparity has fueled calls for faster procurement, but bureaucratic hurdles, budget constraints, and global supply chain issues continue to stall progress.
Yet, obsessing over squadron numbers overlooks a broader reality: modern warfare isn’t won by fighters alone. The IAF’s experience in the 2019 Balakot airstrike—where precision strikes and situational awareness trumped raw numbers—underscores the value of force multipliers. With the Centre allocating ?1.72 lakh crore ($21 billion) for defense capital expenditure in the 2025 budget, the IAF has a golden opportunity to pivot toward assets that amplify its existing fleet’s lethality and survivability.
Force multipliers—such as airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems, mid-air refueling tankers, precision-guided munitions (PGMs), electronic warfare (EW) platforms, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)—can transform a numerically constrained force into a formidable one.
Against China’s J-20 stealth fighters and Pakistan’s growing missile arsenal, early detection is paramount. The IAF operates only three Phalcon AWACS and two indigenous Netra AEW&C systems—far too few for a 7,500-kilometer border. Investing in additional AWACS, like the DRDO’s Netra Mk-2 (based on the Airbus A330), or procuring systems like Israel’s EL/W-2090 could provide real-time battlefield awareness, enabling the IAF to direct its fighters efficiently and counter stealth threats.
A two-front war demands operations over vast distances—from Ladakh’s high altitudes to Rajasthan’s deserts. The IAF’s six IL-78 tankers are insufficient to sustain prolonged missions. Adding more tankers, such as the Airbus A330 MRTT, would allow Rafales, Su-30 MKIs, and Tejas jets to strike deep into enemy territory—neutralizing PLAAF bases in Tibet or PAF facilities in Punjab—without returning to base. This endurance edge is vital when facing China’s layered air defenses.
Numbers matter less when each sortie delivers decisive blows. The IAF’s arsenal of PGMs—like the Spice-2000, BrahMos, and indigenous SAAW—proved their worth in Balakot and Kargil. Scaling up stockpiles of such weapons, alongside integrating hypersonic missiles like the BrahMos-II (under development), can offset squadron shortages by ensuring every mission cripples enemy infrastructure or air defenses.
China and Pakistan rely heavily on integrated air defense systems (e.g., China’s HQ-9 and Pakistan’s HQ-16). Dedicated EW platforms, such as upgraded Su-30 MKIs with indigenous jammers or new systems like the Embraer EMB-145I, can blind these defenses, rendering enemy radar and missiles ineffective. This capability allows smaller IAF formations to penetrate hostile airspace with reduced risk.
UAVs and loitering munitions offer a cost-effective way to stretch combat power. The IAF has inducted MQ-9 Reaper drones from the U.S. and is developing indigenous systems like the DRDO Ghatak stealth UCAV. Expanding these programs—deploying drones for reconnaissance, strikes, and kamikaze roles—can harass enemy positions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Line of Control (LoC), preserving manned aircraft for high-value targets.
How India Can Allocate Capital Wisely
The ?1.72 lakh crore capital budget offers a lifeline, but prioritization is key. The IAF should:
- Allocate ?20,000 crore for 6-8 additional AWACS and tankers, doubling its current fleet by 2030.
- Invest ?15,000 crore in PGMs and missile stockpiles, ensuring a 60-day war reserve.
- Spend ?10,000 crore on EW platforms and jammers, integrating them across Su-30 and Rafale squadrons.
- Channel ?25,000 crore into UAVs, accelerating Ghatak and procuring more MALE UAVs and Loyal wingman UCAVs.
This leaves room for ongoing fighter programs (e.g., ?48,000 crore for 114 MRFA jets), but shifts the focus toward immediate, transformative gains. Public-private partnerships with firms like HAL, Tata, and Reliance can expedite production, while collaboration with allies (U.S., France, Israel) ensures cutting-edge tech.
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