SOURCE: AFI
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, a World Bank-brokered agreement between India and Pakistan, has long been a cornerstone of water-sharing arrangements in South Asia. However, recent speculation about India’s potential withdrawal from the treaty, following heightened tensions over terrorism and border disputes, has brought renewed focus on its implications for Pakistan, particularly its agriculturally vital Punjab province. A detailed analysis of the canal network in Pakistani Punjab, as highlighted in a recent post by X user VatsRohit (@KesariDhwaj), underscores the region’s dependence on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers and the potential consequences of any disruption in water flow under the IWT.
Pakistani Punjab, the country’s most populous and agriculturally productive region, relies on an intricate network of canals to sustain its economy. This network, one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, irrigates millions of hectares of farmland, supporting crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane that form the backbone of Pakistan’s food security. According to VatsRohit’s post, the canal system is primarily fed by the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, two of the three western rivers (along with the Indus) allocated to Pakistan under the IWT. Run-off from the eastern rivers (Ravi and Sutlej), controlled by India, also contributes to the system, though to a lesser extent.
The Indus River, while critical to Pakistan’s overall water supply, plays a relatively limited role in Punjab’s irrigation compared to the Chenab and Jhelum. Canals like the Upper Jhelum and Upper Chenab link the Indus with these rivers to divert water to Punjab, but the province’s dependence on the Chenab and Jhelum is paramount. The Indus, by contrast, is the lifeline of Sindh province, with its main catchment areas lying in Pakistan-controlled Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, outside India’s direct control.
Under the IWT, the waters of the Indus River system are divided between India and Pakistan. India has full control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan has primary rights to the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum). However, India is permitted limited use of the western rivers for domestic purposes, hydropower generation, and restricted irrigation, subject to strict conditions to ensure minimal impact on Pakistan’s water supply.
The Chenab and Jhelum rivers, originating in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, flow through India before entering Pakistan, giving India strategic leverage over their upper reaches. India’s ability to regulate these rivers through dams, reservoirs, and run-of-the-river projects has long been a point of contention, with Pakistan frequently accusing India of violating the treaty by constructing projects like the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants.
As VatsRohit notes, even a minor reduction in the flow of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers could have catastrophic consequences for Pakistani Punjab’s irrigation system. The province’s canal network is highly sensitive to fluctuations in water supply, and any disruption could severely impact agricultural output. Key implications include:
- Agricultural Collapse: Pakistani Punjab produces over 60% of the country’s wheat and significant portions of its rice and sugarcane. A reduction in water from the Chenab and Jhelum could lead to crop failures, exacerbating food insecurity. Pakistan is already importing food items due to population growth and declining yields, and a water shortage would deepen this crisis.
- Water Table Depletion: The post highlights Pakistan’s declining water table, driven by over-extraction and poor management of groundwater resources. Punjab’s farmers increasingly rely on tube wells to supplement canal irrigation, but a drop in surface water would accelerate groundwater depletion, making irrigation unsustainable.
- Economic and Social Panic: Agriculture accounts for roughly 20% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs nearly 40% of its workforce, with Punjab being the epicenter of this sector. A water crisis could trigger economic distress, rural unemployment, and social unrest, particularly in urban centers like Lahore and Multan, which depend on Punjab’s agricultural surplus.
- Mismanagement and Vulnerability: Pakistan’s canal network suffers from inefficiencies, including siltation, leakages, and inequitable water distribution. VatsRohit points out Pakistan’s “expertise at mismanagement,” which compounds the risks of any reduction in water flow. Uncontrolled population growth further strains resources, leaving little margin for error.
India’s control over the upper reaches of the Chenab and Jhelum gives it significant strategic leverage, particularly in the context of ongoing tensions over terrorism. The 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack prompted India to review its approach to the IWT, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously stating, “Blood and water cannot flow together.” While India has not formally withdrawn from the treaty, it has accelerated hydropower projects on the western rivers and signaled its willingness to use water as a diplomatic tool.
By regulating or diverting water from the Chenab and Jhelum—within the treaty’s limits or beyond—India could exert pressure on Pakistan without resorting to military action. For instance, storing water temporarily in reservoirs during critical planting seasons could disrupt Punjab’s irrigation schedule, sending a powerful message to Islamabad. However, such actions risk escalating tensions, given Pakistan’s reliance on these rivers and its nuclear arsenal.
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