SOURCE: AFI
Recent claims by Pakistani YouTube channels and defence enthusiasts, hyping the prospect of Pakistan acquiring China’s elusive sixth-generation fighter jets by 2030, have been met with a reality check from Chinese-affiliated handles on X. Following reports of Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar’s visit to Beijing, where he allegedly secured assurances for these advanced jets, sources close to China’s defence establishment have dismissed the possibility of exports, likening the sixth-generation platforms to the closely guarded J-20 stealth fighter, which remains off the export list.
With two sixth-generation prototypes—the Chengdu J-36 and Shenyang J-50—spotted in test flights since December 2024, China’s focus appears to be on domestic deployment, leaving Pakistan’s ambitions to counter India’s airpower in question. This development, covered by South China Morning Post and Indian Defence Research Wing, underscores the strategic and technological constraints shaping Sino-Pakistani defence ties.
Pakistani defence YouTube channels, such as those cited by Indian Defence Research Wing on April 10, 2025, erupted with excitement following Babar’s meeting with Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun in Beijing. Channels claimed that China promised to equip the PAF with sixth-generation fighters by 2030, alongside a confirmed $1.5–2 billion deal for 40 J-35A fifth-generation stealth jets, with deliveries expected by 2027.
These reports, echoed by Pakistani media like 24 News HD, portrayed the sixth-generation jets as a game-changer, potentially outclassing India’s Rafale and Su-30MKI fleets and bridging the gap until India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) enters service in the mid-2030s. A post on X from @Defence_PK99 on April 11, 2025, amplified the narrative, stating, “Chinese Defense Minister Dung Jun said China is ready to provide sixth generation fighter jets to Pakistan after 2030,” fueling speculation.
The hype reflected Pakistan’s strategic imperative to modernize its ageing air force, currently reliant on JF-17 Thunders, J-10Cs, and F-16s, to counter India’s 36 Rafales and potential F-35 acquisition. Pakistani commentators envisioned a fleet of AI-driven, hypersonic-capable sixth-generation jets, featuring directed-energy weapons and autonomous systems, as a deterrent against India’s growing military prowess, particularly after the 2020 Galwan clash and ongoing LAC tensions.
However, Chinese-affiliated handles on X, believed to be linked to state media and defence insiders, swiftly debunked these claims, emphasizing that the J-36 and J-50, like the J-20, are exclusively for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN). A post cited by South China Morning Post on April 19, 2025, clarified, “China’s sixth-gen fighters are strategic assets for national security, not export products. J-20 isn’t for sale, and neither will these be for a long time.” Another handle hinted that the prototypes, still in early testing, are at least a decade from operational maturity, with export considerations even further off due to technological sensitivity and domestic prioritization.
The J-36, a tailless stealth jet with a lambda wing, and the J-50, a smaller cranked-arrow design, were first spotted on December 26, 2024, and April 7, 2025, respectively, as reported by The Aviationist. Powered by WS-15 or WS-10C engines, these jets promise advanced stealth, AI integration, and internal weapons bays for long-range missiles, but their development mirrors the J-20’s trajectory, which took six years from demonstrator to service but remains non-exportable. China’s hypersonic wind tunnel testing and robust aerospace infrastructure, detailed in a January 2025 Aviation Geek Club article, prioritize PLAAF needs, with over 200 J-20s already deployed.
The Chinese rebuttal tempers Pakistan’s ambitions, forcing a reliance on the J-35A and existing platforms like the J-10C (25 delivered) and JF-17 Block III. While the J-35A enhances PAF’s stealth capabilities, it falls short of sixth-generation advancements, limiting Pakistan’s ability to decisively outmatch India’s IAF, which operates 33 squadrons and is exploring F-35 and Su-57E options. India’s BrahMos missile deployments and potential Voronezh radar acquisition further complicate Pakistan’s strategic calculus.
The Sino-Pakistani defence relationship, deepened by projects like the JF-17 and CPEC, remains robust, but China’s export restraint reflects a pragmatic approach. Firstpost on February 3, 2025, warned that Pakistan’s J-35A deal, financed possibly through Chinese loans, burdens its economy, potentially escalating regional tensions as India accelerates AMCA development and diversifies partnerships with the US and France. A post on X noted, “Pakistan’s 6th-gen dreams are hype—China’s keeping J-36/J-50 for itself, just like J-20. J-35A is all they’ll get by 2030.”
The regional arms race, fueled by China’s rise and Pakistan’s alignment, risks destabilization. Pakistan’s YouTube-driven narrative, while boosting domestic morale, overstates its near-term capabilities, ignoring China’s export priorities and technical timelines. As South China Morning Post reported, China’s focus on countering Western sixth-generation programs leaves little room for exports, even to close allies like Pakistan.
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