SOURCE: IDRW.ORG
As the Indian Air Force (IAF) grapples with a critical shortfall in fighter squadrons and evaluates options for its Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender, Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter is emerging as a compelling contender. Recent developments in Russia’s production capacity and engine technology, coupled with a robust offer for co-production in India, position the Su-57E as a viable interim solution to bridge the gap until India’s indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) enters service in the mid-2030s.
However, challenges related to engine readiness, payment mechanisms, and potential sanctions under the US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) could complicate this opportunity, raising questions about the Su-57’s fit for India’s fifth-generation fighter requirements.
Russia is significantly scaling up production of the Su-57, a twin-engine stealth multirole fighter developed under the PAK FA program. According to reports from idrw.org and discussions at Aero India 2025, the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant (KnAAZ) currently produces 12 Su-57s annually, with plans to increase capacity to 20 aircraft per year by 2028. This expansion, expected to take 24 months with an additional year for stabilization, will enable Russia to meet its domestic order of 76 aircraft for the Russian Aerospace Forces by 2028, with only eight aircraft remaining as back orders by that time.
The Russian Ministry of Defence’s contract for 76 Su-57s, signed in June 2019, reflects a strategic push to modernize its air force post-Ukraine conflict, with potential follow-on orders anticipated to sustain production. A key factor facilitating this ramp-up is the Su-57’s established supply chain, primarily sourced from Russia and China, which minimizes reliance on Western components affected by sanctions. This robust supply chain enables Russia to scale production relatively quickly compared to other fifth-generation programs, a point emphasized in posts on X: “The supply chain of this aircraft is largely completed between Russia and China and that is why ramping up the production of these aircraft is comparatively easy.”
Russia’s efforts to enhance the Su-57 include integrating unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) for a manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) setup, aligning with global trends in network-centric warfare. This upgrade, combined with the aircraft’s stealth, supercruise, and advanced avionics, positions the Su-57E as a potent option for export markets like India.
A significant development bolstering the Su-57’s appeal is progress on the AL-51 (Izdeliye 30) engine, designed to enhance the aircraft’s stealth and performance with supercruise capability. According to idrw.org, the AL-51, offering 11 tonnes dry thrust and 17.5 tonnes with afterburner, is nearing the end of its testing phase and is expected to enter full-scale production by the end of 2025. This timeline aligns with India’s potential procurement schedule, as the IAF could receive initial Su-57E units equipped with the AL-41F-1S (Izdeliye 117S) engine, with the option to upgrade to the AL-51 in later batches.
The AL-51’s advanced features, including serrated exhaust nozzles to reduce infrared and radar signatures, address earlier IAF concerns about the Su-57’s stealth capabilities, which led to India’s withdrawal from the joint Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) program in 2018. A senior Rostec official at Aero India 2025 confirmed to idrw.org that while the AL-51 is not immediately available, it could be offered once production stabilizes, enhancing the Su-57E’s alignment with India’s fifth-generation requirements.
Russia’s offer, presented by Rosoboronexport and United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) at Aero India 2025, goes beyond mere supply, proposing joint production of the Su-57E at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited’s (HAL) Nashik facility, where the Su-30MKI is already assembled. The proposal includes full Transfer of Technology (ToT), allowing India to customize the aircraft with indigenous systems like AESA radars, avionics, and weaponry, aligning with the “Make in India” initiative. This flexibility addresses India’s push for self-reliance, with potential integration of AMCA-developed technologies into the Su-57E, as noted by a Rostec official: “The ToT would enable India to integrate indigenous systems and subsystems.”
The IAF’s experience with the Su-30MKI, including local assembly and AL-31FP engine production, provides a strong foundation for Su-57E manufacturing. Posts on X highlight this advantage: “Since the Indian Air Force is already operating SU 30 MKI which is being assembled in India by HAL along with the engine, due to this reason if the Indian Air Force goes with SU 57, then this fighter aircraft can be made in India comparatively quickly.” With HAL’s infrastructure and expertise, India could absorb Su-57 technology rapidly, potentially delivering aircraft within a shorter timeline than competitors like the Dassault Rafale, which, while favored by the IAF, would be costlier if produced locally.
Despite its promise, the Su-57E faces significant hurdles. The US’s CAATSA poses a risk of sanctions, as seen with India’s S-400 deal, which faced delays due to payment challenges amid Western sanctions on Russia. No robust payment mechanism currently exists to handle a multi-billion-dollar Su-57 deal, and while the anticipated easing of US-Russia tensions under President Donald Trump may reduce CAATSA pressures, uncertainties remain. A post on X noted, “Any major defence transaction with Russia can invite CAATSA. Also, at present, there is no payment mechanism in place that can handle such a large transaction.”
The IAF’s MRFA tender for 114 fighters, which prioritizes local production, pits the Su-57E against strong contenders like the Rafale, F-21, F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Eurofighter Typhoon. The IAF’s preference for the Rafale, driven by its proven 4.5-generation capabilities and existing infrastructure, remains a formidable barrier, with posts on X stating, “Su-57 has very little chance since IAF is obsessed with Rafales.” Russia’s insistence on a government-to-government (G2G) deal to bypass the MRFA tender could further complicate negotiations, potentially alienating Western bidders.
A critical question is whether the Su-57E meets the IAF’s fifth-generation criteria, which include advanced stealth, internal weapons bays, and supercruise. While the Su-57E offers low radar and infrared signatures, its stealth is considered inferior to the F-35, and the AL-51’s delayed production raises doubts about immediate supercruise capability. India’s prior rejection of the FGFA program cited performance shortfalls, and a senior IAF official recently noted that the Su-57E with AL-51F and 2D thrust vector control is at least 4–5 years from production readiness. This uncertainty has fueled skepticism, with posts on X questioning, “The final question will still remain whether this aircraft is a fifth generation fighter aircraft as per the stats of the Indian Air Force or not.”
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