SOURCE: AFI
The demographic trajectories of Pakistan and Bangladesh are sounding alarm bells for India’s security apparatus. With Pakistan’s population projected to reach 270 million by 2030 (up from 241 million in 2023) and Bangladesh’s hovering at 170 million in one of the world’s densest nations, the pressures of overpopulation, economic stagnation, and resource scarcity are mounting. For many in these neighboring countries, India—with its relatively stable economy and vast opportunities—beckons as a land of promise. This allure risks fueling a surge in illegal infiltration, straining India’s border security and social fabric. As the stakes rise, the Border Security Force (BSF) and local state governments must step up with robust plans to curb this tide and craft policies that firmly deny illegal immigrants the same rights as Indian citizens.
Pakistan and Bangladesh face stark realities. Pakistan’s population growth rate, though slowing to 1.52% annually per UN estimates, still outpaces its economic capacity, with youth unemployment at 8.5% in 2023 and 40% of its people living below the poverty line. Bangladesh, despite economic progress, grapples with a density of 1,329 people per square kilometer—over three times India’s 481—leaving little room for sustainable livelihoods amid climate pressures like flooding and rising sea levels. The 2024 political upheaval following Sheikh Hasina’s ousting has only deepened instability, displacing thousands and pushing more toward India’s porous borders.
For both nations, India’s proximity—sharing a 3,323-kilometer border with Pakistan and a 4,096-kilometer border with Bangladesh—makes it an accessible escape hatch. Historical migration patterns amplify this risk: the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War saw 10 million refugees flood into India, while Pakistan’s economic woes have long driven smuggling and infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB). Today, estimates of illegal immigrants in India range from 10-20 million, with Bangladeshis forming the largest group, per statements from officials like Kiren Rijiju in 2016. Rising populations could swell these numbers further, testing India’s resilience.
The consequences of unchecked infiltration are profound. In border states like West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura, illegal immigrants have strained resources, altered demographics, and sparked tensions—evident in Assam’s 1979-1985 anti-foreigner movement and recent NRC debates. Economically, they compete for low-wage jobs, undercutting locals, while socially, their integration—often aided by fraudulent IDs—erodes legal integrity. Security risks loom large: Pakistan’s ISI has exploited porous borders to funnel militants, while Bangladesh’s unfenced riverine stretches have enabled smuggling and human trafficking, as noted in BSF reports of a four-fold rise in apprehensions from 2018 to 2022.
A growing population in these neighbors amplifies these threats. More people mean more pressure on land, jobs, and food—push factors that drive the desperate to cross illegally. Posts on X in February 2025 highlight public frustration, with users claiming “one-third of the Bangladesh border isn’t even fenced” and calling for deportations. While not conclusive, this sentiment underscores the urgency felt by many Indians as infiltration risks escalate.
The BSF, tasked with guarding these frontiers, faces a Herculean challenge. Along the Pakistan border, 3,180 kilometers of the 3,323-kilometer stretch are fenced as of 2024, per Union Home Minister Amit Shah, bolstered by floodlights and anti-drone systems to counter ISI-backed incursions. Yet, the LoC’s rugged terrain and ceasefire violations—230 in 2024 alone—complicate efforts. The Bangladesh border, India’s longest, is trickier: only 3,180 of 4,096 kilometers are fenced, with 916 kilometers of riverine, marshy, or forested land defying physical barriers. BSF Director General Daljit Singh Chawdhary noted in February 2025 that infiltration dropped post-August 2024 due to coordination with Bangladesh’s Border Guards (BGB), but gaps remain.
To counter rising infiltration, the BSF must accelerate its modernization. Infrared sensors, thermal imagers, and ground radars—deployed since 2014 in unfenced zones like Dhubri, Assam—need wider rollout. The Creek Crocodile unit in Gujarat shows promise for riverine security; similar specialized forces could patrol Bangladesh’s deltas. Joint BSF-BGB patrols, agreed upon in February 2025 talks, must intensify, sharing real-time intel to nab traffickers and infiltrators. With population pressures mounting, the BSF’s 270,000-strong force needs more boots on the ground and tech in the air—drones and aerostats—to seal vulnerable stretches.
Local state governments, especially in West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura, are the second line of defense. Their complicity—or inaction—has often exacerbated the problem. In West Bengal, critics allege the Trinamool Congress has turned a blind eye to illegal Bangladeshi settlers for vote banks, a charge echoed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in October 2024, who tied peace in Bengal to stopping infiltration. Assam’s stricter Aadhaar verification, launched in December 2024, contrasts with Bengal’s reluctance to coordinate with the BSF, as noted by Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma.
States must adopt a zero-tolerance stance. Assam’s model—detecting 138 infiltrators in two months via NRC checks—could guide others. West Bengal must crack down on touts providing fake IDs, a practice flagged by the Delhi High Court in 2008 as a security threat. Joint task forces with the BSF, police, and district officials should raid known hubs, deporting illegals swiftly rather than housing them in detention centers like those in Goalpara or Delhi, which strain resources. Political will is key: as X posts suggest, electing governments committed to border security could shift the tide.
Current policies inadvertently incentivize infiltration. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) of 2019 fast-tracks citizenship for non-Muslim minorities from Pakistan and Bangladesh entering before 2014, but excludes Muslims, leaving a gray area for post-2014 arrivals. Illegal immigrants exploit lax enforcement, securing voter IDs and rations, blurring lines with citizens. To deter this, India needs a firm legal stance: no rights—no jobs, welfare, or voting—for those crossing illegally.
A national policy could mandate biometric registration at borders, linked to deportation databases, ensuring illegals are tracked and expelled, not absorbed. States should revoke benefits for undocumented residents, as suggested in a 2022 Vivekananda International Foundation report advocating work permits without voting rights—akin to U.S. or European models. The Foreigners Act of 1946, which jails illegals for 2-8 years, must be enforced rigorously, not softened by political expediency. Denying parity with citizens sends a clear message: India’s prosperity is for its people, not its neighbors’ overflow.
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