SOURCE: AFI
In a provocative escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, Federal Minister for Railways Muhammad Hanif Abbasi has issued a stark warning, claiming that Pakistan possesses 130 nuclear warheads strategically dispersed across the country, ready to be deployed in the event of an Indian attack. Speaking at a press conference at his residence in Rawalpindi on April 26, 2025, Abbasi further asserted that Pakistan’s missile arsenal, including the Ghori, Shaheen, and Ghaznavi missiles, is exclusively targeted at India, signaling a readiness for “full-scale war” if provoked.
This inflammatory rhetoric comes in the wake of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which killed 26 people, intensifying the already volatile India-Pakistan relationship.
Abbasi’s remarks were a direct reaction to India’s decision to suspend the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, a water-sharing agreement critical to Pakistan’s agriculture and economy, as a punitive measure after the Pahalgam attack. The attack, widely attributed to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, prompted India to implement a series of retaliatory actions, including closing the Attari land-border crossing, expelling Pakistani military attachés, and suspending trade ties. Pakistan responded by shutting its airspace to Indian airlines and suspending bilateral treaties, including the Simla Agreement, further deepening the crisis.
In his address, Abbasi warned, “If they stop the water supply to us, then they should be ready for a war. The military equipment we have, the missiles we have, they’re not for display. Nobody knows where we have placed our nuclear weapons across the country. I say it again, these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you.” He emphasized that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, including 130 warheads and missiles like Shaheen, Ghori, and Ghaznavi, was developed specifically for India, underscoring their operational readiness.
Pakistan’s nuclear program, initiated in the 1970s under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, has grown significantly since its first tests in 1998. Estimates of Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile vary, with recent analyses suggesting it possesses between 120 and 170 warheads, potentially growing to 200–250 by 2025 if current trends continue. The country’s missile arsenal, including the Shaheen III (range: 2,750 km), Ghori, and Ghaznavi, is capable of delivering nuclear warheads across South Asia, with India as the primary target. Unlike India, which maintains a “No First Use” policy, Pakistan has not committed to such a stance, emphasizing tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s superior conventional forces.
Abbasi’s claim of 130 nuclear warheads aligns with some estimates, such as a 2018 Federation of American Scientists report citing 120–130 warheads. However, his assertion that these are “spread all over Pakistan” and hidden from detection highlights Pakistan’s strategy of concealment and mobility, with road-mobile missiles and secret storage sites designed to ensure survivability in a conflict. This opacity has long concerned international observers, with even the United States admitting in 2008 that it lacks precise knowledge of Pakistan’s nuclear sites.
Abbasi’s remarks appear to serve multiple purposes: deterrence, domestic posturing, and psychological warfare. By publicly affirming Pakistan’s nuclear readiness, he aims to deter India from escalating its military response to the Pahalgam attack. The Indian Navy’s recent maneuvers, including the INS Vikrant Carrier Strike Group’s movements toward Karachi and P-8I Neptune patrols near Pakistani waters, have heightened Pakistan’s alertness, prompting such bellicose rhetoric. Abbasi’s threats may also be an attempt to rally domestic support amid Pakistan’s economic fragility and political instability, projecting strength in the face of India’s diplomatic and military pressure.
Moreover, Abbasi mocked India’s response to Pakistan’s airspace closure, claiming it caused chaos in Indian aviation within two days and could bankrupt airlines if sustained for ten days. He accused India of deflecting blame for its security failures in Pahalgam, asserting that Pakistan is prepared for economic fallout from India’s trade suspension. These statements suggest an effort to undermine India’s resolve while signaling Pakistan’s readiness to escalate across multiple domains.
The minister’s nuclear saber-rattling has drawn sharp reactions. Indian media outlets have condemned the threats, with some analysts suggesting that Pakistan’s leadership is “cornered” and resorting to desperate measures. Posts on X reflect public sentiment, with users like @Indian_Analyzer
amplifying Abbasi’s remarks as evidence of Pakistan’s aggressive posture, while others, like @grok
, question the precision of his 130-warhead claim, citing estimates of 120–170 warheads.
Globally, Abbasi’s threats underscore the dangers of nuclear escalation in South Asia. A 2019 study by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation estimated that a limited nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could kill 20 million people in a week, with a nuclear winter potentially starving 2 billion people worldwide. The absence of a “No First Use” policy in Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, combined with its reliance on tactical nuclear weapons, heightens these risks.
The United States, already wary of Pakistan’s long-range missile development, imposed sanctions in December 2024 over concerns about their nuclear capabilities, citing potential threats to allies like Israel. Abbasi’s remarks are likely to intensify international scrutiny, particularly given Pakistan’s history of using nuclear threats to counter India’s conventional military superiority.
Muhammad Hanif Abbasi, a seasoned politician and businessman from Rawalpindi, has served as Federal Minister for Railways since 2024. Elected to the National Assembly in 2008 on the Pakistan Muslim League ticket, he has been a vocal figure in Pakistani politics, though his career was marred by a 2012 ephedrine controversy. His recent statements align with a broader trend among Pakistani leaders, including Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who have also issued warnings to India post-Pahalgam. However, Abbasi’s role as Railways Minister, rather than a defense or foreign affairs official, raises questions about the strategic weight of his remarks, potentially reflecting internal pressures to project unity and strength.
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