You dont have javascript enabled! Please enable it! Pakistan’s Defense Analysts Alarmed: India’s Older BrahMos Missiles Penetrate Deep, Signaling Escalating Threat - Indian Defence Research Wing
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SOURCE: AFI

In the wake of the May 2025 conflict, Pakistani defense analysts at Quwa, a prominent defense research platform, have raised concerns about India’s use of BrahMos cruise missiles, which demonstrated a formidable ability to strike deep within Pakistani territory. According to their assessments, the 15 BrahMos missiles fired during Operation Sindoor were from older stocks—specifically Block-I and Block-II variants—yet still managed to hit critical targets, including airbases at Nur Khan, Rafiqui, and Sargodha.

This has sparked alarm in Islamabad, as it underscores India’s growing missile capabilities and raises questions about Pakistan’s air defense vulnerabilities. With India reportedly developing an advanced Block-IV variant equipped with an indigenous Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) seeker, the strategic balance could tilt further, exacerbating tensions and threatening Pakistan’s economic and military stability.

The ability of older BrahMos variants to hit deep targets—up to 290 km inside Pakistan—highlights several critical issues:

  1. Air Defense Gaps: Pakistan’s air defense systems, including the HQ-9 and older French Crotale systems, failed to intercept the BrahMos missiles. Quwa analysts suggest that the missile’s low-altitude flight profile and supersonic speed overwhelmed Pakistan’s radar and interception capabilities.
  2. Strategic Targets: The strikes on airbases like Nur Khan and Sargodha, critical for Pakistan’s air force operations, demonstrate India’s intent to degrade high-value military assets. The $7 billion in equipment losses, including J-17 Thunder and J-10C jets, underscores the economic and operational toll.
  3. Psychological Impact: The successful deep strikes, even with older missiles, have rattled Pakistan’s military establishment. Quwa notes that India’s ability to project power deep into Pakistani territory with dated technology signals a growing asymmetry in military capabilities.

India’s BrahMos Evolution: From Block-I to Block-IV

India’s BrahMos program has seen significant advancements, with each variant improving range, accuracy, and resistance to countermeasures. The variants are:

  • Block-I (2005): Baseline model with a 290 km range, designed for anti-ship and land-attack roles.
  • Block-II (2010): Improved guidance and software, maintaining the 290 km range but with enhanced precision.
  • Block-III (2013): Extended range (400–600 km) and improved terrain-following capabilities, making it harder to intercept.
  • Block-IV (Under Development): Expected to feature an indigenous AESA seeker, offering superior resistance to electronic countermeasures (jamming) and enhanced terminal guidance for pinpoint accuracy. Reports suggest a potential range increase to 800 km and integration with advanced platforms like the Su-30 MKI and Rafale jets.

Quwa’s sources indicate that India deliberately used older Block-I and Block-II missiles in May 2025, possibly to conserve advanced Block-III stocks or test Pakistan’s defenses without revealing its full capabilities. The fact that these older missiles—lacking the Block-III’s extended range and advanced guidance—still achieved deep penetration is a stark warning for Pakistan. The development of the Block-IV variant, with its AESA seeker, raises even greater concerns. AESA technology provides:

Anti-Jamming Capabilities: The active scanning of the AESA seeker makes it highly resistant to electronic countermeasures, a critical advantage against Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese and Russian jamming systems.

Terminal Guidance Precision: Improved terminal guidance ensures the missile can navigate complex environments and hit moving or fortified targets with minimal collateral damage.

Extended Range Potential: While unconfirmed, the Block-IV’s rumored 800 km range could bring major Pakistani cities and strategic assets, including those in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, within India’s strike envelope.

The BrahMos strikes, even with older variants, have exposed vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s defense architecture, with significant economic and strategic ramifications:

  1. Air Defense Upgrades: Pakistan’s failure to counter the BrahMos has prompted calls for urgent investment in advanced air defense systems, such as the Chinese HQ-16 or Russian S-400. However, with foreign exchange reserves critically low and a $7 billion IMF bailout under strain, funding such upgrades is challenging.
  2. Economic Strain: The $7 billion in equipment losses from the May 2025 conflict, including jets and airbase infrastructure, represents a significant setback for Pakistan’s military modernization. Replacing or repairing these assets will divert resources from critical civilian sectors, exacerbating economic woes. The stock market’s 6,500-point crash during the conflict reflects investor fears of further escalation.
  3. Strategic Asymmetry: India’s ability to strike deep with older missiles, coupled with the impending deployment of Block-IV variants, widens the technological gap. Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese-supplied J-17 and J-10C jets, already proven vulnerable, limits its ability to deter or retaliate effectively.
  4. Regional Instability: The BrahMos’ demonstrated reach, and the Block-IV’s potential to target assets up to 800 km away, could force Pakistan to adopt a more defensive posture, diverting resources to fortify its western and northern borders. This could embolden India to lower its threshold for future actions, as seen in Operation Sindoor and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

Pakistan’s economy, already burdened by $128 billion in external debt and a fragile recovery from the 2022 floods, cannot sustain repeated military setbacks. The $7 billion in damages from May 2025, combined with the threat of advanced BrahMos variants, places immense pressure on Islamabad. Quwa analysts warn that the Block-IV’s AESA seeker could render Pakistan’s current countermeasures obsolete, necessitating costly upgrades at a time when the country can least afford them. Moreover, India’s diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan—potentially pushing it back onto the FATF gray list—could choke off vital foreign aid, further destabilizing the economy.

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