SOURCE: AFI
The recent India-Pakistan conflict, sparked by the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack and culminating in India’s Operation Sindoor, has been overshadowed by a series of mild earthquakes in Pakistan, raising questions about their origins. Between April 30 and May 12, four earthquakes of magnitudes 4.0 to 4.7 struck regions near Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, coinciding with intense military engagements. Social media platforms, particularly X, have been abuzz with conspiracy theories suggesting these tremors were either covert Pakistani nuclear tests to signal resolve or the result of Indian strikes damaging Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, such as those at Kirana Hills or Sargodha.
Official statements from India’s National Centre for Seismology (NCS) and the Indian Air Force (IAF) dismiss these claims, but the timing and location of the quakes continue to fuel speculation. This article examines the evidence, the context of the conflict, and the plausibility of these theories, urging a critical approach to separating fact from conjecture.
The Earthquakes: Timing and Locations
According to the NCS, Pakistan experienced four earthquakes in a 13-day period:
May 12, 2025: A 4.3-magnitude quake at 1:26 pm IST near Pir Jongal, Punjab, with an epicenter close to the Main Central Thrust, a seismically active fault line.
April 30, 2025: A 4.5-magnitude quake near Punjab.
May 5, 2025: A 4.2-magnitude tremor in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
May 10, 2025: Two quakes, one of 4.7 magnitude in the morning and another of 4.0 magnitude later, both near Pir Jongal, Punjab.
These tremors occurred during a period of heightened military activity, particularly India’s precision strikes on May 6–9 targeting nine terrorist camps and Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan, Sargodha, Jacobabad, Bholari, and allegedly Kirana Hills.
One prominent theory, articulated by users like @nirakaramekam on X, suggests Pakistan conducted underground nuclear tests to demonstrate its nuclear resolve amid India’s aggressive strikes. “The only theory that makes sense right now is that Pakistan threatened to use their nukes if India did not stop bombarding them. To prove they were serious, they set off a bunch of nukes over the last 2-3 days, which registered as a 4.0-4.5 earthquake,” the user posted multiple times between May 11–12.
Evidence and Analysis:
- Seismic Signatures: O.P. Mishra, Director of the NCS, dismissed this theory, explaining that nuclear explosions produce a distinct seismic signature with a tertiary phase due to surface reverberation, unlike the two-phase signature of natural earthquakes. “Seismographs can detect this distinctly,” Mishra told PTI, confirming that the May 10–12 quakes lacked nuclear characteristics.
- Historical Context: Pakistan’s last confirmed nuclear tests, Chagai-I and Chagai-II, occurred in May 1998 at Ras Koh Hills, Balochistan, producing 20–40 kiloton yields and registering as 5.0–5.4 magnitude quakes. The 2025 quakes, at 4.0–4.7 magnitude, are significantly weaker, suggesting either natural seismic activity or, if artificial, much smaller explosions unlikely to be strategic nuclear tests.
- Strategic Rationale: Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, as outlined by Lt. Gen. (Retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, includes four triggers for nuclear use: spatial, military, economic, or political thresholds. However, conducting tests during a losing conflict risks international condemnation and further isolation, especially after Pakistan’s National Command Authority reportedly met on May 10, though later denied.
- Counterarguments: The quakes’ epicenters near Punjab, far from Pakistan’s known test site in Balochistan, and their shallow depth align with natural tectonic activity along the Main Central Thrust. Moreover, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, estimated at 120–170 warheads, is designed for deterrence, not signaling through tests during active combat.
A second theory suggests that Indian strikes, particularly on Sargodha or Kirana Hills, damaged Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, triggering tremors or secondary explosions mistaken for earthquakes. Social media speculation intensified after reports of Indian BrahMos-A and SCALP-EG missiles targeting nuclear storage sites, as noted by analyst Tom Cooper. A U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) Beechcraft B350 aircraft tracked near Islamabad on May 10, post-strike, fueled claims of U.S. concern over compromised nuclear sites.
Evidence and Analysis:
- IAF Denial: Air Marshal AK Bharti, during a May 12 press briefing, categorically denied striking Kirana Hills, sarcastically remarking, “Thank you for telling us that Kirana Hills houses some nuclear installation — we did not know about it.” Bharti emphasized that Operation Sindoor targeted terrorist infrastructure, not military or nuclear facilities, and presented video evidence of strikes on Pakistani ordnance, not nuclear sites.
- Strike Details: Indian strikes on Nur Khan, Sargodha, and Bholari used BrahMos-A missiles from Su-30MKIs, destroying runways and hangars. While Sargodha is a suspected nuclear storage site, no credible evidence confirms damage to nuclear facilities. Satellite imagery from Kawa Space showed a damaged hangar at Bholari, likely housing a Saab AWACS, not nuclear assets.
- U.S. DoE Aircraft: The DoE’s Beechcraft B350, tracked near Lahore on May 10, suggests U.S. monitoring of nuclear sites post-strike, possibly to secure materials or assess damage. However, its presence could also reflect routine surveillance, given U.S. concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear security during escalation.
- Seismic Feasibility: Damage to nuclear facilities, such as underground bunkers, could theoretically cause localized tremors if explosives or fissile material were destabilized. However, the quakes’ consistency with tectonic activity and lack of radiological signatures reported by international monitors undermine this theory. The 1986 Chernobyl disaster, for instance, caused no seismic activity despite a massive explosion.
- Counterarguments: India’s 1988 Non-Attack Agreement with Pakistan prohibits targeting nuclear facilities, a commitment both nations have upheld. Strikes on nuclear sites would risk catastrophic escalation, contradicting India’s “focused, measured, and non-escalatory” approach, as stated by the Defense Ministry.
Nuclear rhetoric intensified, with Pakistan’s Railway Minister Hanif Abbasi warning on April 27 that its 130+ nuclear missiles were “targeted at India.” India’s strikes near suspected nuclear sites like Sargodha triggered panic in Islamabad, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convening the National Command Authority on May 10, though later denied. U.S. mediation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, secured a ceasefire on May 10, but explosions in Jammu and Srinagar hours later suggested violations.
While the conspiracy theories are compelling given the conflict’s nuclear stakes, the evidence leans heavily toward natural seismic activity:
- Geological Context: The quakes’ epicenters align with the Main Central Thrust, a fault line prone to frequent low-magnitude tremors. Pakistan’s seismic history includes similar events unrelated to military activity.
- Scientific Rejection: The NCS’s analysis of seismic signatures rules out nuclear explosions, and no international monitors, such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), reported anomalous activity.
- Strategic Implausibility: Pakistan conducting nuclear tests during a losing conflict risks global sanctions, as seen post-1998 Chagai tests. Similarly, India targeting nuclear facilities would violate international norms and its own doctrine, risking retaliation.
- Disinformation Risks: Social media, particularly X, amplifies unverified claims, as seen in debunked Pakistani assertions of downing Rafales. The earthquake-nuclear link may reflect similar misinformation, possibly fueled by Pakistan to exaggerate its resilience or by Indian nationalists to inflate Operation Sindoor’s impact.
The earthquakes in Pakistan during the May 2025 conflict have sparked intriguing but largely unfounded theories of nuclear tests or damaged facilities. Official denials from the IAF and NCS, supported by seismic data, point to natural tectonic activity along a known fault line. While India’s strikes on strategic PAF bases like Sargodha and Bholari were devastating, no credible evidence supports claims of nuclear site attacks. Pakistan’s nuclear posturing, including alleged National Command Authority meetings, appears more rhetorical than operational.
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