SOURCE: AFI
In a provocative statement published on April 7, 2025, in The Express Tribune, Air Commodore (Retd) Zahid Ul Hassan of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has claimed that the PAF is set to maintain a qualitative edge over the Indian Air Force (IAF) for the next 10 to 15 years. Hassan’s analysis hinges on the PAF’s ongoing efforts to fully operationalize its 5th generation platforms, while the IAF grapples with a strategic dilemma between pursuing self-reliance and opting for direct acquisitions.
This development, coupled with Pakistan’s focus on co-producing and acquiring 5th generation aircraft equipped with long-range stand-off weapons and first-shot capabilities, is likely to create significant challenges for the IAF, especially as China advances toward 6th generation aircraft for its air force.
The PAF has been actively modernizing its fleet, with a particular emphasis on acquiring 5th generation stealth fighters to enhance its air combat capabilities. In January 2024, PAF Chief Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu announced that the foundation had been laid for acquiring the Chinese-made Shenyang FC-31 (also known as J-31 or J-35 in some contexts), a 5th generation multirole stealth fighter. Reports indicate that Pakistan has inked a deal to procure 40 of these aircraft, with deliveries expected within the next two years. The FC-31, designed to compete with platforms like the U.S. F-35, features advanced stealth capabilities, modern avionics, and the ability to deploy long-range beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles, such as the PL-15, which boasts a reported range of up to 150 km.
Hassan emphasized that the PAF’s acquisition of 5th generation platforms, combined with its focus on long-range stand-off weapons and first-shot capabilities, positions it to achieve a tactical advantage over the IAF. First-shot capability refers to the ability to detect and engage targets before the adversary can respond, a critical factor in modern air combat where stealth and advanced sensors play a decisive role. The PAF’s existing fleet of JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft, co-produced with China, already incorporates advanced features like AESA radar, network-centric warfare capabilities, and long-range BVR missiles, further enhancing its operational effectiveness.
In contrast, the IAF is facing a critical juncture in its modernization efforts, as highlighted by Hassan. The IAF has long been caught between two competing priorities: achieving self-reliance through indigenous programs like the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and addressing immediate capability gaps through direct acquisitions of foreign platforms. This dilemma has been exacerbated by delays in indigenous projects and the slow pace of foreign acquisitions.
Hassan’s critique aligns with sentiments expressed by IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh during the India Today Conclave 2025 on January 23, 2025. Singh acknowledged the IAF’s challenges, including the widening qualitative gap with regional air forces like the PAF and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), as well as the struggle to balance self-reliance with the need for off-the-shelf acquisitions. He noted that the IAF’s current fleet, while diverse, suffers from interoperability issues due to its mix of vintage Soviet-era aircraft and modern platforms like the Rafale, which he described as the IAF’s best bet but still a 4.5 generation fighter with relatively inferior avionics compared to true 5th generation platforms.
The PAF’s acquisition of 5th generation aircraft poses a significant challenge for the IAF, particularly in the context of the volatile security dynamics along the Line of Control (LoC) and the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The FC-31’s stealth capabilities and long-range weapons could enable the PAF to conduct precision strikes and maintain air superiority in contested airspace, potentially shifting the balance of power in the region. This is particularly concerning given the PAF’s historical focus on India-centric threats, unlike the IAF, which must prepare for a two-front war scenario involving both Pakistan and China.
Hassan also pointed to China’s advancements in 6th generation aircraft as a further source of concern for the IAF. The PLAAF is reportedly developing 6th generation platforms, which could incorporate technologies like directed-energy weapons, advanced AI, and hypersonic capabilities. While it is unlikely that such technology would be exported to Pakistan in the near term, the trickle-down effect of Chinese advancements could still enhance the PAF’s capabilities, further widening the qualitative gap with the IAF.
The IAF’s recent acquisitions, such as the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems and the French Rafale fighters, are intended to bolster its capabilities, but Hassan argues that these are “piecemeal solutions” that do not fully address the IAF’s strategic needs. The S-400, while a formidable air defense system, faces deployment challenges in a heavily contested airspace, particularly against stealth aircraft like the FC-31. Similarly, the Rafale, despite its advanced features like the Meteor BVR missile and AESA radar, is still a 4.5 generation platform and may struggle to compete with true 5th generation fighters in a high-threat environment.
Hassan’s warning about the PAF’s qualitative superiority for the next 10 to 15 years is a stark reminder of the challenges facing the IAF. While the IAF remains a numerically superior force, with 2,229 aircraft compared to the PAF’s 1,399, its aging fleet and delayed modernization efforts could undermine its ability to maintain air dominance. The IAF’s leadership, under Air Chief Marshal Singh, must navigate these challenges with a clear strategy that balances immediate operational needs with long-term self-reliance goals.
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