SOURCE: AFI


As India-Pakistan tensions reach a boiling point following the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, India appears to have concluded that the fragile calm along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir is unsustainable. Pakistan’s suspension of the Shimla Agreement, threats to withdraw from the Tashkent Agreement, and aggressive rhetoric over India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) signal a potential slide toward conflict.
However, India’s military planners are increasingly focusing on the International Border (IB) opposite Pakistan’s Punjab province, rather than the LoC, as the key theater to disrupt Pakistan’s strategic calculus. By unleashing artillery barrages and mobilizing forces along the Punjab border, India could exploit the vulnerabilities of Pakistan’s Punjab-dominated military elite, sowing panic and undermining the Pakistan Army’s cohesion.
The LoC, stretching 740 km through Jammu and Kashmir, has been a flashpoint for decades, marked by frequent ceasefire violations, cross-border terrorism, and artillery duels. The 2021 ceasefire agreement, reaffirmed after the 2019 Balakot airstrike, has frayed under the weight of recent events, particularly the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians. Pakistan’s suspension of the Shimla Agreement, which formalized the LoC as the de facto border, has effectively nullified bilateral commitments to maintain peace in the region. Indian defense analyses suggest that India expects an escalation along the LoC, with Pakistan likely to intensify terrorist infiltrations and shelling to pressure India over the IWT suspension.
However, the LoC’s mountainous terrain and fortified positions limit the scope for decisive military gains. Both sides are entrenched, with India’s Northern Command deploying over 300,000 troops and advanced systems like the S-400 to counter Pakistan’s Western Command. While the LoC remains volatile, India’s military leadership recognizes that a broader conflict may require a shift in focus to the IB, particularly the 553-km stretch opposite Pakistan’s Punjab province, where the flat plains offer greater operational flexibility.
The IB opposite Pakistani Punjab, running from Jammu’s Kathua district to Rajasthan’s Ganganagar, is a strategically vital sector. Unlike the LoC’s rugged terrain, the Punjab border features flat, open plains ideal for large-scale mechanized operations, including tanks, artillery, and infantry. India’s Western Command, headquartered in Chandimandir, oversees this sector, with formations like the II Strike Corps (Ambala) equipped with T-90S Bhishma tanks, BrahMos cruise missiles, and Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRLs). Pakistan’s II Corps, based in Multan, defends this region, but its forces are stretched thin due to commitments along the LoC and the Afghan border.
Pakistan’s Punjab province is the country’s political, economic, and military heartland, home to major cities like Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan, as well as critical military infrastructure, including the Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi and airbases like Sargodha. The province is also the power base of Pakistan’s Punjab-dominated military elite, with over 60% of the army’s officer corps and senior leadership hailing from Punjab. Any threat to this region—particularly heavy Indian artillery barrages targeting border posts, infrastructure, or civilian areas—would strike at the core of Pakistan’s national psyche and military morale.
These systems, deployed along the Punjab border, could target Pakistani forward posts, ammunition depots, and logistics hubs in areas like Sialkot, Narowal, and Kasur, all within 10–20 km of the IB. Recent upgrades to India’s artillery, including Excalibur precision shells and satellite-guided munitions, enable accurate strikes on high-value targets, minimizing collateral damage while maximizing psychological impact.
The Punjab-dominated Pakistani military elite, accustomed to fighting proxy wars along the LoC, would face unprecedented pressure if their homeland came under direct fire. Lahore, just 25 km from the IB, is particularly vulnerable, and even limited shelling could trigger panic among civilians and the military brass.
The Pakistan Army would be forced to divert troops, armor, and air defenses from the LoC and Sindh to reinforce Punjab, diluting its operational focus and exposing other fronts to Indian offensives. : Punjab is Pakistan’s agricultural and industrial hub, contributing 60% of its GDP. Shelling or cross-border raids could disrupt trade routes, irrigation canals, and power infrastructure, exacerbating Pakistan’s economic crisis (inflation hit 30% in 2024).
The Pakistan Army’s Punjabi core, including influential families in the officer corps, would face domestic backlash if unable to protect their heartland. This could fracture the military’s unity, especially if junior officers or non-Punjabi units feel neglected.
Pakistan’s II Corps in Multan, responsible for Punjab’s defense, operates T-80UD tanks and Al-Khalid MBTs but lacks the numerical strength to counter India’s II Strike Corps, which fields over 200 T-90S tanks and 100 BMP-II infantry fighting vehicles. Pakistan’s air defenses, including HQ-9 SAMs, are concentrated around Rawalpindi and Karachi, leaving Punjab’s border areas exposed to IAF strikes by Rafale jets or BrahMos missiles.
Focusing on the Punjab border aligns with India’s broader strategy to isolate Pakistan militarily and diplomatically. India’s “with us or against us” ultimatum to world powers, demanding they sever ties with terror-sponsoring Pakistan, gains traction as the international community condemns the Pahalgam attack. By escalating along the IB.
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