SOURCE: AFI
India’s unprecedented decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on April 23, 2025, in response to the Pahalgam terror attack has sent shockwaves through South Asia, with Pakistan labeling the move an “act of war.” The suspension, which halts data sharing and technical cooperation with Pakistan, signals India’s intent to leverage its upstream position on the Indus River system to pressure Islamabad over its continued sponsorship of terrorism.
As Pakistan suspends the Shimla Agreement and considers withdrawing from the Tashkent Agreement, India is poised to divert waters from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) allocated to Pakistan under the IWT. This article examines the estimated timelines for water diversion projects—ranging from storage dams to large-scale basin rerouting—and their strategic implications in the context of escalating tensions and India’s naval posturing in the Arabian Sea.
The IWT, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allocates the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) to India and the western rivers to Pakistan, with India permitted limited use for irrigation, hydropower, and storage. The treaty’s suspension, announced by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, aims to hold Pakistan accountable for the Pahalgam attack, linked to The Resistance Front (TRF). India’s five-point punitive plan also includes downgrading diplomatic ties and closing the Attari-Wagah border, while satellite imagery of INS Vikrant underway off Karwar underscores its naval dominance amid Pakistan’s weakened submarine fleet.
Diverting water from the western rivers is a complex undertaking, requiring infrastructure upgrades, environmental assessments, and political resolve. India’s plans range from accelerating existing dam projects to constructing new diversion canals and potentially rerouting entire river basins. Below are the estimated timelines for these projects, based on expert analyses and government reports.
Estimated Timelines for Water Diversion
Storage Dams Already Under Construction (2–4 Years) – India has several hydroelectric and storage projects on the western rivers, permitted under the IWT’s Annexure D for “run-of-the-river” dams with limited storage. Key projects include:
- Pakal Dul (1,000 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) on the Chenab River, under construction by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC). These projects, with completion timelines of 2026–2027, could store up to 1 million acre-feet (MAF) of water, reducing downstream flows to Pakistan.
- Kishanganga (330 MW), operational since 2018, and its proposed expansion, which could enhance storage by 2027.
- Bursar Project on the Marusudar River (a Chenab tributary), in the planning stage but fast-tracked post-IWT suspension, with a projected completion by 2028.
These dams, already in advanced stages, require 2–4 years to fully operationalize storage and diversion capabilities. India could begin partial diversions by 2026, redirecting water for irrigation in Jammu and Kashmir or Punjab, reducing Pakistan’s share by 5–10% initially.
New Medium-Scale Diversion Infrastructure (5–7 Years)
Building new canals, barrages, and link channels to divert water from the Chenab and Jhelum to India’s eastern rivers or internal reservoirs is a medium-term goal. Potential projects include:
- Chenab-Ravi Link Canal: A proposed 100–150 km canal to divert Chenab water to the Ravi for irrigation in Punjab and Haryana. Feasibility studies, land acquisition, and construction could take 5–6 years, with completion by 2030.
- Jhelum-Beas Diversion: A barrage system to redirect Jhelum water to the Beas, enhancing India’s agricultural output in Punjab. This project, requiring environmental clearances and infrastructure, is estimated to take 6–7 years.
Large-Scale Basin Re-Routing (7–10+ Years)
The most ambitious option involves reengineering the Indus basin to divert significant volumes of water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab to India’s eastern rivers or new reservoirs. This includes:
- Indus Mega-Reservoir: A proposed high-capacity dam on the Indus main stem in Ladakh, capable of storing 20–30 MAF. Such a project, requiring international expertise and $15–20 billion, would take 8–10 years, with completion by 2033–2035.
- Trans-Basin Diversion: A network of canals linking the Indus to the Ganges basin, irrigating Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. This mega-project, with a 10–12-year timeline, faces technical, financial, and geopolitical hurdles, including China’s control over upstream Indus tributaries in Tibet.
Even partial diversions by 2026–2027 could reduce Pakistan’s agricultural output by 10–15%, exacerbating its 30% inflation rate and food insecurity. Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan’s breadbasket, would face severe shortages, potentially destabilizing its Punjab-dominated military elite.
The World Bank, which brokered the IWT, and powers like the U.S. and China may criticize India’s unilateral actions. Pakistan’s appeal to the UN could lead to sanctions or mediation demands, though the IWT’s lack of a termination clause limits legal recourse.
Large-scale diversions risk salinization, desertification, and ecosystem collapse in Pakistan, potentially affecting India’s own border regions. Domestic opposition from environmentalists and farmers in Jammu and Kashmir could delay projects.
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