SOURCE: AFI
In a significant escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, India’s issuance of a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) on April 30, 2025, closing its airspace to all Pakistani-registered, operated, or leased aircraft has laid bare the stark asymmetry in the financial fallout of the ongoing airspace dispute. While India faces minimal losses from its decision, Pakistan’s earlier move to deny Indian flights access to its airspace is costing it dearly—an estimated $300,000 per day—owing to India’s position as the third-largest source of outgoing air traffic globally.
The current crisis began on April 24, 2025, when Pakistan issued a NOTAM closing its airspace to Indian aircraft, following India’s diplomatic offensive in response to the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 tourists in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan’s closure, set to last until May 25, 2025, disrupted over 70 to 80 daily two-way flights from India to Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Central Asia, forcing Indian carriers like Air India and IndiGo to reroute flights, incur higher fuel costs, and even cancel routes to destinations like Tashkent and Almaty.
India retaliated on April 30, 2025, with its own NOTAM, banning Pakistani aircraft from its airspace until May 23, 2025. This move, while symbolic in the context of India-Pakistan relations, has far greater financial implications for Pakistan than for India, given the disparity in aviation traffic and revenue generation between the two nations.
Pakistan’s decision to close its airspace to Indian flights has backfired significantly. Historical data from the 2019 airspace closure following the Balakot airstrikes provides a clear benchmark: Pakistan lost approximately $232,000 daily in overflight charges alone, with the total daily loss reaching $300,000 when including landing, parking, and terminal navigation fees. Additionally, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) incurred losses of $460,000 per day due to suspended international routes and longer domestic flight paths, bringing the combined daily loss to around $760,000. Over the five-month closure in 2019, Pakistan’s total losses amounted to nearly $100 million.
The current closure is following a similar trajectory. With India boasting the third-largest outgoing air traffic globally—approximately 9,000 international departures monthly, including 519 flights to Europe and 309 to North America by Air India alone—Pakistan’s airspace is a critical corridor for these routes. Overflight fees, which vary by aircraft type (e.g., $580 for a Boeing 737, higher for larger planes like the Airbus A380), constitute a substantial revenue stream for the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). By denying Indian flights, Pakistan is forgoing this income, a loss estimated at $300,000 daily, mirroring the 2019 figures.
In contrast, India’s closure of its airspace to Pakistani flights has a negligible financial impact. Pakistan International Airlines operates a modest fleet of 32 aircraft, and its international routes to Southeast Asia and the Far East are limited. Rerouting these flights through Chinese or Sri Lankan airspace adds operational costs for PIA, but the volume of Pakistani flights is far smaller than India’s. India, with its budget carrier IndiGo operating 372 aircraft and Air India managing over 200 (with more on order), handles a significantly larger share of regional and international traffic. The closure of Indian airspace to Pakistan thus affects fewer flights and generates minimal overflight revenue loss for India.
Moreover, India’s aviation sector is better equipped to absorb the costs of rerouting. While Indian airlines have faced disruptions—estimated at $10 million to $15 million for a one-month closure, with Air India projecting a $600 million loss over 12 months—these costs are distributed across a larger operational base. Airfares may rise by 8-12%, and some flights now require fuel stops in cities like Vienna or Copenhagen, adding up to four hours to journey times. However, India’s robust aviation market, driven by high demand and a growing middle class, can weather these challenges more effectively than Pakistan’s struggling aviation sector.
India’s position as the third-largest source of outgoing air traffic globally underscores the asymmetry in this airspace standoff. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, Air India’s India-Europe flights have surged by 80% since 2019, reaching 242 weekly services, while flights to North America have more than doubled to 144 per week. This growth reflects India’s expanding role in global aviation, fueled by a burgeoning economy and increasing international connectivity. Pakistan, by contrast, has seen its aviation sector stagnate, with PIA grappling with financial woes and a limited fleet.
The closure of Pakistani airspace has also given a competitive edge to non-Indian carriers, such as Middle Eastern airlines, which can still overfly Pakistan, potentially undercutting Indian airlines on affected routes. However, India’s long-term resilience—bolstered by alternative routing options, such as potential overflights through Chinese airspace (pending safety modifications and permissions)—mitigates these challenges.
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