SOURCE: AFI
India’s rapid advancements in ballistic missile defense (BMD) technology, coupled with its acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, have sparked debates about their implications for regional security, particularly in the context of its rivalry with Pakistan. Abdul Moiz Khan, a research officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies in Islamabad, has voiced concerns that India’s indigenous BMD system—combined with the S-400—might foster a “false sense of security” among Indian policymakers, suggesting that it could effectively neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. However, this perspective has been sharply contested by Ranesh Rajan, a defense analyst, in an interview with idrw.org, who argues that Pakistan’s missile capabilities are overstated and outdated, while India’s BMD ambitions extend far beyond countering its western neighbor.
Khan’s critique hinges on the notion that India’s growing defensive capabilities could embolden it to underestimate Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent, potentially destabilizing the delicate balance of power in South Asia. He warns that such confidence might lead India to adopt a more aggressive posture, believing it can withstand a Pakistani counterstrike. However, Rajan dismisses this as a misreading of both India’s strategic intent and the reality of Pakistan’s missile technology. He contends that Pakistan’s perception of possessing “world-class ballistic missiles” is delusional, rooted in a reliance on aging Chinese and North Korean designs that have failed to keep pace with modern advancements.
Rajan points out that Pakistan’s missile arsenal—including systems like the Shaheen series, Babur cruise missile, and Ra’ad—largely derives from blueprints provided by China and North Korea decades ago. Recent events, such as missile tests and regional conflicts, have exposed the limitations of these systems, with many analysts noting their lack of precision, reliability, and adaptability. He argues that Pakistani scientists and engineers, constrained by limited experience and resources, have struggled to innovate or improve upon these outdated platforms, leaving their arsenal increasingly obsolete in the face of contemporary threats.
In contrast, India’s BMD program is a multi-layered, forward-looking initiative designed to address far more sophisticated challenges. Rajan emphasizes that India is developing a three-tier BMD system, encompassing Phase-I, Phase-II, and now Phase-III, each building on the last to tackle a spectrum of threats, including Chinese hypersonic projectiles. Phase-I, already completed, focused on intercepting missiles with ranges up to 2,000 km, while Phase-II, tested successfully in 2024, extends this capability to 5,000 km-class ballistic missiles. Phase-III aims to counter even more advanced threats, such as hypersonic glide vehicles, which travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 and maneuver unpredictably—capabilities China has been aggressively pursuing with systems like the DF-17 and DF-27.
“If India’s BMD program were solely Pakistan-focused, it could have halted after Phase-I,” Rajan asserts. “The fact that we’re seeing Phase-II and Phase-III, with systems designed to defeat superior Chinese ballistic missiles, proves this isn’t about Pakistan’s arsenal, which pales in comparison.” He highlights that China’s missile technology—featuring greater range, accuracy, and maneuverability—far surpasses what Pakistan has inherited, making it the primary strategic benchmark for India’s defense planners.
The addition of the S-400, capable of engaging targets at ranges up to 400 km and tracking threats nearly 600 km away, further bolsters India’s layered defense architecture. While Khan sees this as potentially destabilizing, Rajan views it as a pragmatic response to a broader threat landscape, one where Pakistan’s capabilities are a secondary concern. “Pakistan’s missiles are based on old tech with limited upgrades,” Rajan explains. “India’s systems, both indigenous and imported, are built to counter the best in the world—not just the relics Pakistan fields.”
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