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SOURCE: RAUNAK KUNDE / NEWS BEAT / IDRW.ORG

Dr. Mansoor Ahmed, an Honorary Lecturer at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre of Australian National University, recently discussed India’s nuclear strategic goals on World Echo News with host Syed Muhammad Ali. Dr. Ahmed emphasized India’s growing commitment to bolstering its sea-based nuclear deterrent through an extensive fleet of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). He suggested that the Indian Navy would likely need an arsenal of around 300 nuclear warheads exclusively for its SSBN fleet by 2035 to establish a credible deterrent.

India currently operates two Arihant-class SSBNs and has two more advanced S4-class SSBNs nearing operational status. The next generation, the S5 class, is expected to consist of three more SSBNs, ultimately expanding the fleet to a formidable six nuclear-capable submarines. The addition of these submarines underscores India’s focus on strengthening its nuclear deterrent with a credible second-strike capability, which will play a vital role in its broader defense strategy.

For the SSBN fleet, Dr. Ahmed’s projection of 300 nuclear warheads reflects the strategic need for a robust payload capacity across multiple platforms. Each submarine could carry multiple Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), potentially armed with several warheads each. This configuration would allow for a diversified and secure deterrent in the event of a major conflict, ensuring India’s ability to respond from sea-based platforms even if its land-based systems were compromised.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and other research institutions have recently estimated India’s current nuclear capability. According to FAS’s Nuclear Notebook, India has produced sufficient weapons-grade plutonium to build approximately 210 nuclear warheads, although estimates suggest that around 172 warheads have been assembled. This aligns with AFI’s recent report that India’s total reprocessed plutonium inventory is about 5.1 metric tons (5,181.84 kg), with approximately 1.9 metric tons (1,930.49 kg) earmarked for reactor core loading.

Assuming 4 kg of plutonium is required per nuclear weapon, India’s plutonium reserves could theoretically yield up to 839 nuclear weapons. This capability underscores the potential for rapid scaling of India’s arsenal if strategic needs evolve, with SSBN fleet requirements likely prioritized.

The significance of this plutonium stockpile goes beyond mere numbers, as it positions India to field a substantial SSBN-based arsenal with reliable second-strike capability. This mirrors trends seen in major nuclear powers, where SSBN fleets are regarded as critical pillars of national security due to their invulnerability to first-strike attacks.

India’s SSBN expansion is expected to impact South Asian strategic stability, especially given the rivalry with neighboring nuclear-armed states. The ability to deploy multiple warheads across a survivable submarine fleet may prompt discussions on nuclear doctrine, arms control, and regional security dynamics. Additionally, India’s SSBN fleet enables the country to project power across the Indian Ocean and adjacent strategic chokepoints, reinforcing its geopolitical influence.

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