SOURCE: AFI

In a recent development surrounding the India-Pakistan aerial skirmish on May 7, 2025, a French analyst with prior experience at Dassault Aviation has provided critical insights into the performance of the Rafale fighter jet and its SPECTRA electronic warfare (EW) system.
The analyst’s statements counter Pakistan’s bold claims of downing three Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale jets during India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. According to French media and the analyst’s assessment, only one Rafale may have sustained damage, with Pakistan’s narrative appearing exaggerated and lacking substantiation. This article explores the analyst’s claims, the role of the Rafale’s advanced systems, and the broader implications of the conflict.
Pakistan’s military leadership, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed, has repeatedly asserted that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down multiple Indian aircraft, including three to four Rafale jets, during the May 7 clash. They claim the PAF’s Chinese-made J-10CE fighters, armed with PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles, achieved these kills, with one reported at an unprecedented range of 182 kilometers. Pakistani officials have cited electronic signatures and crash site data to support their narrative, amplified by Chinese media and social platforms like Weibo.
However, a French analyst formerly associated with Dassault Aviation has challenged these claims, stating that the SPECTRA EW system on the Rafale is equipped to counter the PL-15 missile, as it is included in the system’s threat library. The analyst argues that SPECTRA’s advanced radar warning receivers, jammers, and decoy dispensers likely mitigated the threat posed by the PL-15E, potentially preventing the loss of multiple aircraft. French media reports align with this assessment, suggesting that at most one Rafale may have been damaged, not destroyed, during the engagement.
The Rafale’s SPECTRA (Système de Protection et d’Évitement des Conduites de Tir du Rafale) is a cornerstone of its survivability in contested environments. This integrated EW suite is designed to detect, classify, and counter threats, including advanced air-to-air missiles like the PL-15E, which has an estimated range of 120–145 kilometers. The French analyst emphasized that SPECTRA’s low probability of intercept (LPI) radar detection capabilities and active jamming systems are tailored to neutralize threats from modern active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, such as the KLJ-10A on Pakistan’s J-10CE.
According to the analyst, the IAF deployed at least 14 Rafale jets as part of the strike package during Operation Sindoor, which utilized SCALP cruise missiles to hit nine terrorist targets deep inside Pakistani territory. The SCALP, a stealthy, long-range missile, was reportedly effective, penetrating Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied HQ-9P air defense system, which showed vulnerabilities during the engagement. The analyst suggested that the Rafale’s advanced sensors and data-linking capabilities, combined with the Meteor missile’s “no escape zone” (range exceeding 150–200 kilometers), gave the IAF a significant edge in beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat.
While Pakistan claims a “trophy kill” with multiple Rafale losses, the French analyst and media reports indicate that only one Rafale may have been damaged, likely by a PL-15E fired at maximum range by a J-10CE. The analyst noted that the PAF likely launched four to five PL-15E missiles in a bid to secure a high-profile victory, but the lack of concrete evidence—such as verifiable crash site imagery or debris—casts doubt on their claims. India has neither confirmed nor denied losses, a stance that some analysts interpret as strategic ambiguity to maintain operational secrecy.
French media, citing a source familiar with the conflict, reported that at least one Rafale was involved in the engagement but suggested that any damage was minor, with the aircraft possibly returning to base. This aligns with a French fighter pilot’s statement to AFP, which described the PL-15’s ability to remain undetected until its terminal phase, but emphasized that SPECTRA’s countermeasures could disrupt such attacks if properly employed.
Pakistan’s claims have been amplified by Chinese state media, which hailed the J-10CE’s “combat debut” as a triumph for China’s defense industry. The narrative has fueled speculation about the Rafale’s combat effectiveness, prompting Indonesia to review its $8.1 billion deal for 42 Rafale jets. However, the French analyst dismissed these concerns, arguing that the Rafale’s performance in Operation Sindoor demonstrated its robustness, particularly in executing precision strikes with SCALP missiles.
The analyst also suggested that Pakistan’s aggressive claims may be part of a broader disinformation campaign, supported by Chinese satellite intelligence, to undermine India-France defense ties and promote Chinese arms exports. This aligns with reports of Chinese social media platforms like TikTok and Weibo amplifying the narrative to create cracks in the India-France strategic partnership.
Despite the analyst’s confidence in SPECTRA, French MP Marc Chavent raised concerns in the National Assembly about its performance, citing NATO intelligence that suggested a Rafale was downed by a PL-15E without SPECTRA detecting the J-10CE’s LPI radar. Chavent questioned whether the Rafale F5 standard, currently under development, would include a substantial overhaul of SPECTRA to counter next-generation AESA radars and active-guided missiles. The analyst countered that SPECTRA’s threat library already includes the PL-15, and any failure might be attributed to operational factors, such as pilot tactics or situational awareness, rather than a systemic flaw.
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