SOURCE: AFI
A recent report by a prominent European think tank has underscored the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) overwhelming strategic advantage over the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in the context of precision strikes and airbase targeting. The analysis, focusing on the IAF’s performance in a recent conflict with Pakistan, highlights the IAF’s ability to cripple key PAF airbases in the first wave of a potential war, potentially neutralizing Pakistan’s air operations for an extended period. The report emphasizes the IAF’s precision cruise missile capabilities, particularly with systems like the BrahMos and SCALP, and points to Pakistan’s geographical limitations as a critical vulnerability.
According to the think tank, the IAF’s ability to target and disable PAF runways, hangars, and critical infrastructure has demonstrated a decisive edge in modern warfare. During the recent conflict, the IAF executed coordinated precision strikes on 11 of Pakistan’s 13 major airbases, using a combination of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, SCALP air-launched cruise missiles, and other precision-guided munitions like HAMMER and Crystal Maze. These strikes, part of Operation Sindoor launched on May 7, 2025, targeted key PAF bases, including Nur Khan (Chaklala, Rawalpindi), Rafiqui (Shorkot), Murid (Chakwal), Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, Chunian (Kasur), Bholari, Jacobabad, Sargodha, Skardu, and radar sites at Pasrur and Sialkot. The operation inflicted significant damage, with reports confirming the destruction of runways, command centers, radar installations, and high-value assets, including an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft and long-endurance UAVs.
The report notes that the IAF’s use of approximately 15 BrahMos missiles, launched from Sukhoi-30 MKI fighters and land-based systems, showcased their devastating precision and speed (Mach 2.8–3.0). The BrahMos, a joint India-Russia venture, is designed for pinpoint accuracy and is nearly impossible to intercept due to its low-altitude flight profile and supersonic speed. Complementing this, SCALP missiles deployed from Rafale jets further enhanced the IAF’s ability to strike deep into Pakistani territory, targeting hardened shelters and critical infrastructure. The think tank asserts that the IAF’s demonstrated capability to hit any PAF airbase with such precision means no Pakistani airbase is beyond the reach of India’s cruise missile arsenal.
The European think tank’s analysis suggests that a concentrated attack of just 100 cruise missiles, such as BrahMos or SCALP, could incapacitate the PAF for at least the first two weeks of a conflict. By targeting runways, hangars, and command-and-control nodes, the IAF could prevent PAF aircraft from taking off or landing, effectively grounding Pakistan’s air force. The report cites the recent conflict, where the IAF’s strikes forced the PAF to relocate surviving aircraft to rear bases, significantly degrading its operational capabilities. The loss of critical assets, such as an AEW&C aircraft at Bholari airbase and long-endurance UAVs, further hampered Pakistan’s situational awareness and air defense network.
The think tank highlights the IAF’s sophisticated tactics, including the use of decoy “dummy” aircraft to provoke Pakistani radar and air defense systems into revealing their positions. These systems were then neutralized by Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions, clearing the way for cruise missile strikes. This multi-layered approach, executed on the night of May 9–10, 2025, under Operation Sindoor, showcased India’s ability to penetrate and dismantle Pakistan’s China-supplied air defense systems, such as the HQ-9, with remarkable efficiency.
A key factor in the IAF’s dominance, as per the report, is Pakistan’s lack of geographical depth compared to India. Pakistan’s airbases, primarily located in Punjab and Sindh, are within close proximity to the Indian border, making them highly vulnerable to rapid, deep-penetration strikes. For instance, bases like Nur Khan (near Islamabad) and Bholari (near Karachi) are critical to PAF operations but lie within the 290–800 km range of BrahMos missiles. In contrast, India’s vast geographical expanse allows it to disperse its air assets across a larger area, complicating enemy targeting efforts. The report notes that this asymmetry was exploited during the recent conflict, where the IAF sustained minimal damage despite Pakistani retaliatory strikes on Indian bases like Udhampur, Pathankot, and Adampur.
The think tank argues that Pakistan’s limited depth leaves its airbases exposed to overwhelming first-wave attacks, resulting in significant losses on the ground rather than in aerial combat. Satellite imagery and posts on X have corroborated the extensive damage to PAF infrastructure, with craters on runways and destroyed hangars rendering key bases inoperable. This vulnerability was evident in the recent conflict, where the PAF’s ability to mount a counter-offensive was severely curtailed, forcing Pakistan to seek a ceasefire through urgent Director General of Military Operations (DGMO)-level talks on May 10, 2025.
The think tank’s report underscores that the IAF’s ability to neutralize PAF airbases in a first wave gives India a decisive edge in any potential conflict. The BrahMos missile’s combat debut, combined with SCALP and other precision munitions, has validated India’s investment in advanced weaponry and self-reliance under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative. The report also highlights the IAF’s integration of indigenous systems like the Akash and QRSAM air defense systems, which successfully countered Pakistani drone and missile attacks, further showcasing India’s technological superiority.
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