SOURCE: AFI
In a significant blow to Pakistani claims of air superiority, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), one of Europe’s most respected defense think-tanks, has dismissed assertions that the Chinese-built J-10C fighter jet, potentially in service or on offer to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), holds a “first-shot edge” over the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) Rafale.
In a detailed analysis, RUSI expert Justin Bronk highlighted the Rafale’s superior kinematic performance, electronic warfare capabilities, and the edge provided by its Meteor missile over the J-10C’s PL-15, affirming the IAF’s advantage in long-range aerial engagements against both the PAF and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
For years, Pakistani defense circles and some Chinese media outlets have propagated the narrative that the J-10C, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter developed by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, gives the PAF a decisive edge in beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat, particularly with its Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and the long-range PL-15 air-to-air missile. These claims gained traction amid speculation that Pakistan might acquire the J-10C to counterbalance the IAF’s growing fleet of Rafale jets, procured from France’s Dassault Aviation under a 2016 deal for 36 aircraft.
However, RUSI’s analysis, authored by Justin Bronk, a renowned airpower expert, challenges this narrative head-on. Bronk acknowledges the J-10C’s capabilities, noting that its AESA radar and access to the PL-15 missile make it a “potentially serious long-range threat to non-stealth aircraft.” Yet, he asserts that the J-10C falls short when pitted against the Rafale in a realistic combat scenario, particularly at long ranges where BVR engagements dominate modern aerial warfare.
Bronk’s assessment highlights several areas where the Rafale outclasses the J-10C. First, he points to the Rafale’s superior kinematic performance—its ability to maneuver, accelerate, and sustain high speeds—which gives it an edge in both offensive and defensive scenarios. The Rafale’s aerodynamic design, powered by twin Snecma M88 engines, allows it to maintain energy during complex maneuvers, a critical advantage in dogfights and BVR engagements alike. In contrast, the J-10C, while agile as a single-engine delta-wing fighter, is powered by the less potent WS-10 engine (or the AL-31F in export variants), which limits its thrust-to-weight ratio and overall kinematic performance compared to the Rafale.
Equally significant is the Rafale’s advantage in electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. The Rafale is equipped with the Spectra electronic warfare suite, a state-of-the-art system developed by Thales, which provides advanced electronic countermeasures, radar jamming, and infrared decoy capabilities. Spectra enhances the Rafale’s survivability in contested airspace by disrupting enemy radar and missile guidance systems, making it harder for adversaries like the J-10C to achieve a reliable lock-on. Bronk notes that “the J-10C is unlikely to be able to match the Rafale for electronic warfare capabilities,” underscoring a critical gap that could prove decisive in a high-stakes encounter.
Another key aspect of RUSI’s analysis is the comparison between the Rafale’s primary BVR weapon, the MBDA Meteor missile, and the J-10C’s PL-15E missile. The Meteor, widely regarded as one of the most advanced air-to-air missiles in the world, features a ramjet propulsion system that allows it to maintain high speed throughout its flight, giving it exceptional range (reportedly over 200 km) and a large no-escape zone. This makes the Meteor particularly effective against maneuvering targets at long ranges, providing Rafale pilots with a significant first-shot advantage.
The PL-15E, on the other hand, is a formidable weapon in its own right, with a reported range of 145 km and an AESA seeker that enhances its ability to engage targets in cluttered environments. Pakistani and Chinese sources have often touted the PL-15 as a game-changer, claiming it outranges Western missiles like the AIM-120 AMRAAM used by the PAF’s F-16s. However, Bronk argues that the Meteor provides a “superior counter to the PL-15,” citing its kinematic advantages and advanced guidance systems. The Meteor’s ramjet engine ensures sustained speed and energy, allowing it to close in on targets more effectively than the PL-15, which relies on a traditional rocket motor that loses energy over long distances.
For India, the report reinforces the strategic wisdom of investing in the Rafale as a force multiplier. The 36 Rafales currently in IAF service, based primarily at Ambala and Hasimara airbases, have already demonstrated their value in exercises and operational deployments along India’s northern and eastern borders, where they face off against Chinese and Pakistani threats. The Rafale’s ability to dominate BVR combat scenarios enhances the IAF’s deterrence posture, particularly in the context of heightened tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China and the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan.
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