SOURCE: AFI
The India-Pakistan conflict of May 2025, ignited by the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack and intensified by India’s Operation Sindoor, has taken a disturbing turn with allegations that Pakistan deliberately tried to provoke a catastrophe reminiscent of the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) shootdown.
Social media posts on X and unverified reports suggest Pakistan sought to lure international civilian airliners into its airspace, hoping Indian air defense systems (ADS) would mistakenly shoot them down, thereby framing India for a tragedy akin to MH17, which was downed by Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine. While no such incident occurred, the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian carriers and rerouting of international flights highlight the dangerous brinkmanship. This article critically examines these claims, the context of the conflict, and the parallels with MH17, emphasizing the need for skepticism amid wartime disinformation.
On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, a Boeing 777-200ER en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down over eastern Ukraine by a Buk 9M38 surface-to-air missile launched by Russian-backed separatists. All 283 passengers and 15 crew members perished. The Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team (JIT) concluded in 2018 that the missile originated from Russia’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, fired from separatist-controlled territory. A 2022 Dutch court convicted three men—two Russians and a Ukrainian separatist—of murder, affirming Russia’s control over the perpetrators. The tragedy, occurring during the Donbas conflict, exposed the risks of civilian flights over war zones, as Ukraine had failed to close its airspace despite known threats from surface-to-air missiles.
The MH17 shootdown became a global symbol of the dangers of misidentification in conflict zones, with Russian disinformation initially claiming Ukrainian forces or a mistaken attack on a military plane were responsible. The incident led to tightened international aviation regulations and heightened scrutiny of airspace management during conflicts.
Airspace management became a critical issue. On April 24, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines in retaliation for India’s suspension of a water-sharing pact, prompting India to reciprocate. By May 7, following India’s strikes, Pakistan’s airspace was largely avoided by international carriers, with FlightRadar24 reporting rerouting by British Airways, Lufthansa, and Emirates over the Arabian Sea to bypass Pakistan. Domestic disruptions included 17% of Pakistani flights and 3% of Indian flights canceled by May 8. Airports in northern India, like Srinagar, were temporarily closed, and Pakistan’s airports, though declared “fully functional,” saw minimal civilian traffic.
Unverified reports on X, such as a post by@GeoStratX on May 9, allege that Pakistan deliberately encouraged international airliners to transit its airspace during the conflict, hoping Indian ADS—like the S-400 or Akash systems—would mistake them for PAF jets or drones and fire, triggering a civilian tragedy. “Pakistan tried to pull an MH17—lure civilian planes into a hot zone so Indian SAMs would shoot them down, then blame India for war crimes,” the post claimed, suggesting Pakistan aimed to replicate the international outrage that followed MH17 to isolate India diplomatically.
Supporting Claims:
- Airspace Manipulation: Pakistan’s refusal to fully close its airspace to civilian flights, despite active combat, mirrors Ukraine’s failure in 2014 to restrict MH17’s flight path. FlightRadar24 data showed some civilian jets, including Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flights to Kuala Lumpur, continued operating over Pakistan on May 8, unlike the near-total avoidance of Indian airspace. This could suggest an intent to maintain civilian traffic as a shield or bait.
- PAF Tactics: Pakistan’s deployment of 300–400 drones, including Turkish SONGAR and Chinese Byker YIHA III models, alongside PL-15 missiles, overwhelmed Indian ADS in Jammu and Kashmir. If civilian airliners were present, the IAF’s S-400 or Akash systems, designed to counter fast-moving threats, might have misidentified them, especially under electronic warfare (EW) conditions where PAF J-10Cs reportedly jammed Indian radars.
- Historical Precedent: The MH17 shootdown involved separatists mistaking a civilian Boeing 777 for a Ukrainian military transport, a scenario Pakistan could have hoped to replicate by positioning civilian flights near PAF operations. Posts on X speculated that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) was prepared to blame India for any shootdown, leveraging global media to amplify the narrative, much like Russia’s initial disinformation campaign post-MH17.
- Motive: Facing a military rout—PAF bases destroyed, five jets downed, and a ceasefire request on May 10—Pakistan may have sought a diplomatic win by framing India as reckless. A civilian airliner shootdown would have drawn condemnation from the U.S., China, and the UN, shifting focus from Pakistan’s support for terrorism.
Parallels with MH17: A Dangerous Comparison
The MH17 tragedy offers a cautionary tale for the India-Pakistan context:
- Conflict Zone Risks: Both conflicts involved active combat with surface-to-air missiles (Buk 9M38 for MH17, S-400/Akash for India). Ukraine’s failure to close its airspace in 2014 parallels Pakistan’s partial openness in 2025, raising questions about responsibility.
- Disinformation: Russia’s post-MH17 disinformation, blaming Ukraine or claiming a military target, mirrors Pakistan’s debunked claims of downing Rafales. A staged shootdown could have been amplified by Pakistan’s ISPR, leveraging media to shift blame.
- Civilian Vulnerability: MH17 flew at 33,000 feet, within range of Buk missiles, similar to civilian airliners’ cruising altitudes over Pakistan (30,000–40,000 feet), vulnerable to S-400s (range 400 km). However, India’s IACCS and transponder protocols likely prevented misidentification.
- International Fallout: MH17 unified global condemnation against Russia, leading to legal action. A similar incident in 2025 would have isolated India, but the absence of such an event suggests either Pakistan’s failure to execute or the theory’s baselessness.
NOTE: AFI is a proud outsourced content creator partner of IDRW.ORG. All content created by AFI is the sole property of AFI and is protected by copyright. AFI takes copyright infringement seriously and will pursue all legal options available to protect its content.