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SOURCE: AFI

In a recent interview with AFI, Defence Analyst Ranesh Rajan expressed concerns regarding the potential strategic implications of Pakistan acquiring the fifth-generation J-35A stealth fighter jet in the upcoming years. Rajan highlighted that this development might push India into a scenario of “panic buying” to counterbalance the new aerial threat in the region.

Rajan recalled historical precedents, stating, “When Pakistan got F-16s, IAF panicked and went on to procure Mirage-2000s and Mig-29s as a countermeasure.” He pointed out that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aimed to operate around 110 F-16s, which in turn compelled the Indian Air Force (IAF) to quickly acquire 40 Mirage-2000s and 80 Mig-29s. This reaction was driven by the need to maintain air superiority in response to Pakistan’s advancements.

With Pakistan now set to introduce the J-35A into its arsenal by as early as 2027, Rajan suggests that a similar pattern might repeat. He noted, “PAF acquiring a 5th gen fighter first in the region will trigger a similar response,” indicating that India might feel pressured to accelerate its own procurement or development of advanced fighter jets to keep pace with its neighbor’s capabilities.

The J-35A, developed by China, is a significant upgrade offering stealth capabilities, advanced avionics, and the ability to engage in both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, potentially shifting the balance of air power in South Asia. Rajan emphasized that this acquisition would occur well before India’s indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) achieves its first flight, let alone enters production, which is expected around 2034.

Rajan also touched upon the strategic maneuvering by Russia, which has been actively promoting the sale of its Sukhoi Su-57 to India through media campaigns. “Russians know it,” he said, suggesting that Russia is aware of the pressure India might feel and is positioning itself as a viable supplier of fifth-generation fighters.

The urgency to counter Pakistan’s new acquisition could lead India to reconsider its options, possibly looking towards either upgrading its current fleet or opting for foreign fifth-generation fighters in the interim. However, this choice comes with its complexities, including geopolitical considerations, the cost of acquisition, maintenance, and the strategic autonomy India seeks through its own AMCA project.

The potential acquisition of J-35A by Pakistan could indeed prompt a significant strategic response from India, possibly echoing past patterns of rapid air force modernization. With the AMCA still years away from deployment, India faces a decision on whether to engage in what Rajan terms as “panic buying” or to strategically manage its defense acquisition in a way that balances immediate threats with long-term technological and military independence.






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