SOURCE: AFI
Dassault Aviation, the French aerospace giant, has reported a significant milestone in 2024, with its order book swelling to a record backlog of 299 aircraft, valued at €43.2 billion. The surge has been driven primarily by the continued global success of its flagship Rafale fighter jet, a versatile multirole aircraft that has solidified its reputation as a top-tier combat platform.
However, despite the impressive growth, persistent supply chain disruptions and production constraints pose challenges for the company, particularly as nations like India look to expand their Rafale fleets. This article delves into Dassault’s achievements, the hurdles it faces, and the implications for India’s defense procurement strategy.
In 2024, Dassault Aviation secured export orders for 30 Rafale jets, comprising 18 from Indonesia and 12 from Serbia, signaling the aircraft’s growing appeal in the international market. Notably, France, the Rafale’s primary operator, did not place any new orders this year, with its current commitments already substantial at 234 Rafale jets ordered over the years. The new export deals underscore the Rafale’s reputation as a combat-proven platform, capable of performing diverse roles such as air superiority, ground attack, reconnaissance, and nuclear deterrence.
Adding to the momentum, India is set to procure 26 Rafale M (Marine) jets in 2025 for its navy, intended to operate from the INS Vikrant aircraft carrier. This order, once finalized, will push Dassault’s backlog past the 300-unit mark, further cementing the Rafale’s role as a cornerstone of India’s defense strategy. India has already inducted 36 Rafale jets into its air force under a 2016 contract, and the additional carrier-borne variants will enhance its naval aviation capabilities, replacing aging MiG-29K fighters.
The Rafale’s export success is not limited to these nations. Countries like Egypt, Qatar, Greece, Croatia, and the United Arab Emirates have also embraced the aircraft, with the UAE being the largest foreign customer with an order for 80 Rafales. The aircraft’s advanced features—such as the Thales RBE2 AESA radar, SPECTRA electronic warfare suite, and compatibility with a wide array of precision-guided munitions—make it a formidable choice for modern air forces.
Despite the robust order intake, Dassault Aviation has faced significant challenges in scaling production to meet demand. In 2024, the company delivered 21 Rafale jets, surpassing its 2023 tally of 13 but falling short of its projected target of 35. Éric Trappier, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dassault Aviation, acknowledged the hurdles, stating, “Dassault Aviation is continuing to ramp up production of the Rafale against a backdrop of persistent external and internal supply chain issues.”
The aerospace industry has been grappling with supply chain disruptions since the post-COVID recovery period, with shortages of critical components like structural parts and engines affecting manufacturers worldwide. For Dassault, these challenges are compounded by the complexity of Rafale production, which involves intricate final assembly processes where a single missing part can delay the entire workflow. Trappier has previously likened final assembly to “putting together a Lego kit,” emphasizing the precision required to ensure timely deliveries.
To address these issues, Dassault has taken proactive measures, including strengthening its supply chain through industry collaboration, supporting subcontractors with staffing and financing, and exploring alternative sourcing options. The company has also opened a new facility in Cergy-Pontoise to boost output and is considering further infrastructure expansion to support higher production rates.
Dassault has set an ambitious target of increasing Rafale production to 30 units per year, up from its current average of around 1.75 units per month (21 jets annually). However, even at this elevated rate, clearing the existing backlog of 299 aircraft—soon to exceed 300 with India’s order—would take nearly a decade. This timeline raises concerns for nations like India, which may seek to procure additional Rafale jets directly from France to bolster its air force amid regional security challenges.
India’s interest in the Rafale extends beyond the 26 Rafale M jets for its navy. The Indian Air Force has expressed a desire to expand its fleet to counter growing threats from China and Pakistan, both of whom are modernizing their air forces with advanced fighters like the J-20 and JF-17, respectively. However, with Dassault’s production line already stretched, any new orders could face significant delays unless the company can further accelerate output or explore alternative production strategies, such as establishing an assembly line in India.
For India, the Rafale backlog and production constraints present both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the finalized order for 26 Rafale M jets will enhance the Indian Navy’s operational capabilities, providing a carrier-capable fighter with superior range, payload, and sensor fusion compared to the MiG-29K. The Rafale M’s integration with the INS Vikrant will strengthen India’s maritime presence in the Indian Ocean Region, a critical theater amid rising tensions with China.
On the other hand, the potential 10-year timeline to clear Dassault’s backlog could complicate India’s plans for rapid fleet expansion. The Indian Air Force is already grappling with a shortfall in fighter squadrons, with its current strength far below the sanctioned 42 squadrons needed for a two-front war scenario. While India has invested in indigenous programs like the Tejas LCA and AMCA, these platforms are unlikely to fully bridge the gap in the near term, making additional Rafale acquisitions an attractive option.
One potential solution could be to deepen collaboration with Dassault by establishing a Rafale assembly line in India, aligning with the country’s “Make in India” initiative. Such a move would not only expedite deliveries but also create jobs, foster technology transfer, and strengthen bilateral ties with France. However, this would require significant investment and political will, as well as assurances from Dassault that it can manage the complexities of overseas production without compromising quality.
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