SOURCE: AFI
The hashtag “India won’t let ‘a drop of water’ into Pakistan” has taken China’s social media platforms Weibo and Baidu by storm, amassing over 230 million views as of May 6, 2025. Chinese netizens are closely following India’s recent decision to restrict water flows to Pakistan, a move seen as a punitive response to escalating tensions between the two South Asian neighbors. The phrase, which originated from a statement attributed to Indian officials, has sparked widespread discussion on China’s internet, reflecting Beijing’s strategic interest in the India-Pakistan conflict and its implications for regional stability.
India’s decision to curb water flows to Pakistan stems from the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a framework that has governed the sharing of the Indus River system’s waters for over six decades. The move follows the April 22, 2025, terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people and prompted India to accuse Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism. In retaliation, India has implemented a series of measures, including airspace closures, trade bans, and now water restrictions. The phrase “India won’t let ‘a drop of water’ into Pakistan” encapsulates India’s hardline stance, signaling its intent to leverage natural resources as a geopolitical tool.
Posts on Weibo highlight India’s control over the eastern rivers of the Indus system—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—where it has the right to full usage under the IWT, while Pakistan relies heavily on the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—for its agriculture and water supply. By threatening to divert or withhold water from these rivers, India aims to pressure Pakistan economically, particularly in its agrarian Punjab province, which depends on Indus waters for 80% of its irrigation needs.
The trending hashtag on Weibo and Baidu has generated a flurry of reactions, ranging from analytical commentary to expressions of solidarity with Pakistan. A top post on Weibo, garnering 177,748 likes, reads: “India controls the upper reaches of the Indus River. By not letting a single drop of water flow to Pakistan, it can directly choke Pakistan’s agriculture, especially in Punjab province.” Another user, with 77,704 likes, noted, “This isn’t Pulwama; there’s no clear evidence of Pakistan’s involvement, but India is escalating tensions with water as a weapon.” These comments reflect a nuanced understanding of the conflict, with many users recognizing India’s strategic advantage while questioning the justification for its actions.
Chinese netizens have also drawn parallels to their own water disputes with India. A post with 35,964 likes states, “India should be careful. China controls the Brahmaputra’s upper reaches and could retaliate by withholding data or building more dams.” This reflects concerns about a domino effect, as China has been constructing massive dams on the Brahmaputra (known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in China), raising fears in India about downstream impacts. The discussion underscores China’s vested interest in the India-Pakistan water dispute, given its own upstream position on rivers flowing into India.
China’s close monitoring of the situation is unsurprising, given its deep alliance with Pakistan. Beijing has consistently supported Islamabad in international forums, including at the UN Security Council, where it backed a diluted statement on the Pahalgam attack, urging both sides to de-escalate. Chinese social media users have echoed this stance, with many accusing India of overreacting. A Weibo post with 127,786 likes remarked, “The EU, Russia, and even the U.S. are calling for both sides to calm down, but India is saber-rattling. Pakistan benefits from this neutrality.”
However, some users have expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of India’s water strategy. A comment with 17,919 likes notes, “India can’t store much water with its current reservoirs. It might release water at the wrong time to disrupt Pakistan’s crops, but this won’t have a big impact.” This aligns with expert analyses suggesting that India’s ability to fully block water flows is limited by infrastructure constraints, though strategic releases or delays could still disrupt Pakistan’s agricultural cycles.
The hashtag’s popularity on Weibo and Baidu also highlights China’s strategic calculations. Beijing’s dams on the Brahmaputra give it leverage over India, and any escalation in the India-Pakistan water dispute could prompt China to flex its own upstream muscle. A Weibo user with 16,358 likes warned, “If India plays the water card, China won’t hesitate to act on Pakistan’s behalf. We’ve seen this at the UN already.” This underscores the interconnected nature of water politics in South Asia, where actions by one country can ripple across the region.
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