SOURCE: AFI
On March 15, 2025, at approximately 1:30 p.m., a J-15 carrier-based aircraft of the Chinese Navy experienced a severe malfunction, resulting in a near-vertical stall and crash over Jiali, a town located in the northwestern part of Hainan Island. The incident was widely captured by onlookers, despite swift attempts by Chinese authorities to suppress the footage online.
The J-15, known as the “Flying Shark,” has long been touted as a symbol of China’s expanding blue-water naval ambitions. However, this latest crash highlighted ongoing concerns about the aircraft’s reliability and technical shortcomings. The jet plummeted less than 20 meters from residential homes, narrowly avoiding a catastrophic explosion. Fortunately, no civilians were injured, and the pilot ejected in time to survive the crash.
Military experts have attributed the incident to a failure in the Russian-made AL-31F engine. Witnesses reported that the aircraft appeared to be preparing for a stable landing with its gear extended when the left engine’s nozzle contracted, cutting off power and causing a loss of control. With the main hydraulic system failing and the flight control system unresponsive, the pilot had minimal reaction time. Despite ejecting at a dangerously low altitude, the pilot miraculously survived.
The J-15’s AL-31F engines have faced longstanding criticism for their limited service life of under 1,000 hours, requiring major overhauls every 300 hours. Heat-induced wear and frequent nozzle malfunctions have rendered the J-15 vulnerable, especially under high-intensity training conditions.
A Disturbing Safety Record
The J-15’s troubled operational history has resulted in multiple fatal incidents:
- April 6, 2016: Pilot CH Shen Jen sustained serious injuries when his J-15’s flight control system malfunctioned moments after takeoff.
- April 27, 2016: Major Jung Chao died after his aircraft lost control during landing; the ejection system failed, leading to fatal injuries.
- August 16, 2017: Vice Squadron Leader Yen Wei’s J-15 suffered an engine fire caused by a bird strike. While the pilot survived, the incident underscored the aircraft’s vulnerability to external factors.
- April 2024: A young pilot, Pang J, lost his life during a crash in the South China Sea under unclear circumstances.
The J-15’s core issues stem from its rushed development, adapted from the Ukrainian T-10K-3 prototype. Engineers at Shenyang Aircraft Corporation expedited the program in under five years by copying the J-11’s flight control system, which proved incompatible with the J-15’s complex three-wing configuration.
In combat readiness terms, the J-15’s large frame, combined with its weight of 22.5 to 24.5 tons during landing, results in poor maneuverability and excessive strain on its engines. The aircraft’s radar system remains outdated, with a power output of just 1 kW—significantly weaker than contemporary Western systems. By comparison, the U.S. Navy’s F/A-18E Super Hornet boasts an AESA radar with 18 kW peak power, vastly enhancing situational awareness.
Poor Maintenance and Readiness Rates
Reports indicate that older J-15 units experience at least one critical malfunction every 100 flight hours. Among these:
- 23.7% are related to flight control failures
- 31% stem from engine issues
- 19.5% involve avionics malfunctions
- 25.6% are miscellaneous problems
The J-15’s operational availability is reported to be just 42.8%, meaning nearly half the fleet is grounded at any given time. This is considerably worse than its global counterparts, such as the F-35C (85% availability), Rafale M (75%), or India’s MiG-29K (60%).
China’s carrier-based air power faces significant limitations. The J-15’s reliability issues and the delayed deployment of its successor, the J-35, leave the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) at a disadvantage. While the CCP promotes its carrier fleet as a symbol of power, internal reports paint a grim picture: the J-15’s limited sortie capacity makes it challenging to sustain carrier operations in a prolonged conflict.
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