SOURCE: IDRW.ORG
As geopolitical tensions simmer in the South Caucasus, Armenia is recalibrating its defense strategy in response to Azerbaijan’s acquisition of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan. Sam Lichtenstein, Director of Analysis at the risk intelligence firm RANE, told Forbes that Armenia is likely to prioritize acquiring India-built Su-30MKI multirole fighters to bolster its air force, citing their cost-effectiveness compared to French Rafale jets.
This move aligns with Armenia’s growing defense ties with India, which has emerged as a key supplier of advanced weaponry to Yerevan since the early 2020s. The potential acquisition of Su-30MKIs, alongside upgrades to Armenia’s existing Su-30SM fleet, could reshape the regional balance of power and counter Azerbaijan’s military modernization, driven by its deepening ties with Pakistan.
Azerbaijan’s procurement of JF-17 Block III fighters, co-developed by Pakistan and China, has heightened Armenia’s urgency to modernize its air force, which currently operates a small fleet of four Su-30SM Flanker-C jets acquired from Russia in 2019. The JF-17, equipped with Chinese AESA radars and PL-15 missiles, offers Azerbaijan a lightweight, cost-effective platform to enhance its air capabilities, particularly after its victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. In response, Armenia is exploring options to strengthen its air defenses and offensive capabilities, with India emerging as a strategic partner.
According to Lichtenstein, “While Yerevan will likely pursue multiple lines of effort, it is likely to focus on acquiring India-built Su-30MKIs given that they are far more cost-effective than French Rafales.” The Su-30MKI, a heavily customized variant of the Russian Su-30 produced under license by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is a twin-engine, multirole fighter known for its versatility, long-range strike capabilities, and integration of advanced Indian avionics and weaponry. Priced significantly lower than the Rafale, which costs upwards of $200 million per unit fully equipped, the Su-30MKI offers Armenia a budget-friendly yet potent option to counter Azerbaijan’s growing air power.
India’s defense relationship with Armenia has deepened significantly since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with Yerevan signing record-breaking deals for Indian-made weaponry. These include the $250 million contract for Pinaka rocket systems, anti-tank munitions, and other equipment in 2022, as well as ongoing negotiations for Astra Mk1 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAMs) and BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. India’s willingness to supply advanced systems, coupled with its expertise in maintaining and upgrading Russian-origin platforms, positions it as an ideal partner for Armenia’s air force modernization.
Lichtenstein noted that India is a strong candidate to upgrade Armenia’s existing Su-30SMs, enabling compatibility with Indian-made munitions like the Astra Mk1 and BrahMos. “India would likely also be interested in supplying these systems to counteract Azerbaijan’s acquisition of fighters from Pakistan, India’s arch-rival,” he added. Posts on X highlight Armenia’s interest in integrating BrahMos and Astra missiles onto its Su-30SMs, a move that could enhance its precision strike and air-to-air combat capabilities. Upgrading the Su-30SMs with Indian avionics, such as the Virupaksha AESA radar, could further align Armenia’s fleet with the Su-30MKI’s capabilities, improving interoperability and reducing reliance on Russian spares, which have been disrupted by sanctions and the Ukraine conflict.
The Su-30MKI, operated by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in a fleet of over 260 aircraft, is tailored for multirole operations, featuring thrust-vectoring engines, a phased-array radar, and compatibility with a wide range of munitions. Its ability to carry the BrahMos missile, with a range of 290–450 km and a Mach 3.5 next-generation variant in development, offers Armenia a strategic deterrent against Azerbaijan’s ground and naval targets. The Astra Mk1, with a 110-km range, enhances the Su-30MKI’s air-to-air lethality, making it a formidable adversary for the JF-17, which, despite its upgrades, remains a lighter aircraft with a less robust payload capacity.
Armenia’s possible negotiations with HAL to procure Su-30MKIs, potentially replace a stalled order for eight additional Su-30SMs from Russia, which has failed to deliver due to production constraints. The Su-30MKI’s proven track record at HAL, combined with India’s offer of pilot training and maintenance support, makes it an attractive option for Yerevan, which also seeks Indian assistance in training its pilots. This collaboration could pave the way for India’s first fighter jet export, bolstering its defense industry and geopolitical influence in the Caucasus. HAL recently got orders for 12 more Su-30MKI from IAF for which production will start from 2027 onwards.
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