SOURCE: RAJESH AHUJA / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
As Pakistani netizens took to social media to celebrate the take over of Kabul by the Taliban forces many were quick to taunt India about impending war that will soon erupt in the Indian side of Kashmir and how like USSR and US, India will be forced to vacate and handover them entire Kashmir in a platter. In border areas of the Afghan-Pakistan border, not much activity was seen, no mad rush of Afghan refugees trying to cross the Durand line nor Pakistani military activities that were initially anticipated. since not much had happened, perhaps why Pakistani netizens are already dreaming about taking control of Kashmir from India.
Selected Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan also known by his nickname “Taliban Khan ” in defiance to the US administration came to praise rise of Taliban and said, “You take over the other culture and become psychologically subservient. When that happens, please remember, it is worse than actual slavery. It is harder to throw off the chains of cultural enslavement. What is happening in Afghanistan now, they have broken the shackles of slavery”.
As the situation in Afghanistan changed, the Pakistani military establishment along with its notorious spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was not so much in celebratory mode as its netizens, they perhaps are possibly worried about the fallout of the war that has just ended in Afghanistan with freeing of hundreds of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan cadres who have vouched to liberate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other tribal areas from the grip of Pakistan control and have already declared their intention to fight Pakistani military to regain its influence and implement sharia over this areas.
In a video that has gone viral on Twitter, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan cadres on the Afghan-Pakistan border at angoor ada were seen taunting Pakistani border guards how they are next on target and how their friends who are were just out of prisons after been released by the Taliban from several detention and jails in Afghanistan are coming soon to Pakistan for them. Pakistan’s strategy to use the fractions of Taliban into Kashmir in support of their long proxy war will come at a price with Pakistan losing control of areas to Tehrik-i-Taliban that could have major repulsion to the Pakistani military that has lost close to 100 men in its western front in last 3 months even though there is a ceasefire agreement in place with India on Line of Control (LOC).
If the Pakistani military plans to heat the Indian side of Kashmir then there is a high chance that it will lose control of tribal areas that it has fought hard to bring it back under its rule. The Pakistani military is fully aware that not only will it lose control of these areas but will face continuous attacks in the region due to lesser troop deployment if things heat with India that will also have direct repercussions in the troubled Baluchistan province that already has the indigenous movement for the last 75 years.
With the Taliban take over Kabul complete and with likely angry wrath coming from the Western and European countries soon, It will be interesting to see what position does Pakistani military takes, will it want to save its own country at expense of Kashmir or Anti-India hatred will get better of its judgment and it will try to rush in terrorist inside Kashmir in a repeat of 90’s when the valley saw major terrorist activity majorly from Pakistan and afghan cadres of terror outfits that this time can quickly accelerate into a full-fledged war with India leading to its global isolation and internal civil war.
As for India, Next few months will decide if Taliban will stick to their word and stay out of Kashmir or some fractions of the group will make it to the Kashmir under patronage of the ISI like seen in 90’s. We Indians should remember that scale of terrorist activity in 90’s was around 4000 + in strength , Yet Indian Army was able to defeat them. Abandoning Kashmir is not an option for India due to geopolitical proximity to the National capital, nor we can let Pakistan use POK as Terror Launch pad into Kashmir and need to prepare strikes inside POK if need be arise we will fight what ever may come even if it inches both countries to a Nuclear cloud at the end.
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