SOURCE: AFI
In February 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump made headlines by announcing a potential offer to supply India with the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II, a fifth-generation stealth fighter coveted by air forces worldwide. The proposal, pitched as part of a broader initiative to boost U.S.-India defense ties, sparked intense debate about the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) modernization strategy.
However, nearly three months later, no formal offer has materialized, and the IAF’s renewed push to procure additional Dassault Rafale jets signals a closing window for American fighters in India’s arsenal. With India doubling down on self-reliance through programs like the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the Rafale may well be the last foreign fighter jet India acquires, potentially ending any prospect of the IAF operating U.S.-built aircraft like the F-35A.
During a high-profile meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington on February 13, 2025, President Trump declared that the U.S. would increase military sales to India by “billions of dollars” and was “paving the way” to provide the F-35A, a conventional take-off and landing variant of the world’s most advanced stealth fighter. The announcement positioned India as a potential entrant into an elite group of F-35 operators, including NATO allies, Israel, Japan, and Australia. With its low radar cross-section, AI-driven sensor fusion, and multirole capabilities, the F-35A promised to transform the IAF’s ability to counter regional threats, particularly from China’s growing fleet of J-20 stealth fighters.
Yet, the offer remains informal, lacking the concrete framework required for a deal of this magnitude. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri clarified that no formal procurement process had begun, emphasizing that acquisitions typically involve a request for proposals (RFP) and rigorous evaluation. The absence of a government-to-government agreement or a clear timeline has fueled skepticism about the proposal’s viability, especially given the F-35’s high costs—approximately $82.5 million per unit, with operational expenses of $36,000 per flight hour—and stringent U.S. end-user restrictions.
While the F-35A offer lingers in limbo, the IAF has moved decisively to bolster its fleet with additional Rafale jets, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter already in service. India operates 36 Rafales, acquired through a €8 billion deal finalized in 2016, and the IAF has expressed satisfaction with their performance in air-to-air and air-to-ground roles, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. Recent reports indicate that the IAF has prioritized the acquisition of 114 more Rafales under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, with negotiations advancing for both air force and naval variants.
The Rafale’s appeal lies in its proven reliability, lower lifecycle costs (compared to the F-35), and India-specific enhancements, such as Meteor long-range missiles and integration with existing infrastructure. Unlike the F-35, which would require significant investments in training, logistics, and compatibility with India’s Russian-origin systems like the Il-78 refuelers, the Rafale is a seamless fit. Moreover, France’s willingness to support technology transfers and local production aligns with India’s “Make in India” initiative, a stark contrast to the U.S.’s reluctance to share F-35 technology due to its sensitive systems.
The IAF’s push for more Rafales is also driven by urgency. With only 31 fighter squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42, and ageing MiG-21s and Jaguars nearing retirement, the IAF cannot afford delays. The Rafale, already operational, offers a quicker solution than the F-35, which would face integration challenges and a protracted acquisition process.
The IAF’s Rafale focus is not just about immediate needs; it reflects a broader strategic shift toward self-reliance. India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a twin-engine fifth-generation stealth fighter, is progressing under the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). With a first flight planned for 2028 and induction targeted for 2034, the AMCA aims to deliver stealth, supercruise, and indigenous systems tailored to IAF requirements. The program has received significant funding—?15,000 crore—and government backing, signaling India’s intent to reduce dependence on foreign fighters.
Defense experts argue that investing in the F-35 could divert resources from the AMCA, undermining India’s long-term goal of building a self-sufficient defense industry. A senior government official involved in the AMCA project told The Hindu BusinessLine that a U.S. fighter deal would be a “setback” for indigenous efforts, given the intellectual and financial capital already committed. The Rafale, as a stopgap, allows India to bridge the capability gap while the AMCA matures, whereas the F-35’s high costs and lack of co-production prospects clash with the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-Reliant India) vision.
Why the F-35A Faces an Uphill Battle
Several factors dim the prospects of an F-35A sale to India:
- Cost and Compatibility: The F-35’s acquisition and maintenance costs are prohibitive, with lifecycle expenses for 114 jets potentially exceeding $100 billion. Its integration into the IAF, which relies heavily on Russian systems like the S-400 air defense network and Sukhoi Su-30MKIs, poses logistical nightmares. The F-35’s data links and refueling systems are incompatible with India’s current setup, requiring costly upgrades.
- Geopolitical Sensitivities: Accepting the F-35 could strain India’s defense ties with Russia, a key supplier of fighters, missiles, and technology. Russia has countered with an offer to co-produce the Su-57 stealth fighter in India, leveraging its history of technology transfers. While the Su-57 is less likely to be chosen, it underscores India’s delicate balancing act between Western and Russian partnerships.
- U.S. Restrictions: The U.S. imposes strict end-user agreements on F-35 sales, limiting India’s ability to modify or deploy the jet independently. This contrasts with France’s more flexible approach, as seen in the Rafale deal.
- Domestic Priorities: The AMCA and other indigenous programs, like the Tejas Mk2, are national priorities. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh emphasized at Aero India 2025 that India aims to manufacture its own fifth-generation fighters, reducing the strategic need for foreign platforms like the F-35.
The IAF’s pivot to the Rafale and AMCA suggests that the French jet could be the last foreign fighter India procures. The MRFA program, once a contender for Western jets like the F-15EX, F-21, or Gripen, now appears tilted toward Rafale, with reports of a potential deal by 2027 for 114 jets, some built in India. This would fulfill the IAF’s medium-term needs, allowing the AMCA to anchor its future fleet. Once the AMCA is operational, India’s reliance on foreign fighters is expected to wane, aligning with Modi’s vision of a self-reliant defense ecosystem.
The F-35A, despite its technological edge, struggles to fit into this roadmap. Unlike the Rafale, which complements India’s existing capabilities and industrial goals, the F-35 demands a complete overhaul of logistics and strategy—too steep a price for a nation committed to indigenization. Even if a formal U.S. offer emerges, the IAF’s preference for Rafale and the AMCA’s steady progress leave little room for American jets.
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