SOURCE: AFI
)
The attempts of US-based Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and his gangs are trying to revive the Khalistani armed struggle in Punjab are doomed to fail due to fundamental demographic and socio-political changes in the state. Beyond his rhetoric, Pannun’s actions appear more aligned with masking illicit activities rather than genuinely advancing any separatist agenda.
One of the most significant hurdles to reviving an armed struggle in Punjab is the declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among Sikhs in the state. Over the past few decades, Punjab has experienced a steady decline in birth rates, reflecting broader societal changes such as urbanization, better education, and economic development.
According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), Punjab’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.6 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The Sikh community, which forms the majority in Punjab, is seeing even sharper demographic changes due to emigration and a growing preference for smaller families.
Punjab has undergone profound socio-political changes since the height of the Khalistani insurgency in the 1980s and 1990s. The majority of the population, especially the younger generation, is more focused on improving their livelihoods rather than supporting a separatist cause. Agriculture, trade, and overseas opportunities remain central to their aspirations.
The memories of the violence and instability during the insurgency years have left a lasting impact on the people of Punjab. There is little appetite for a return to armed conflict, as evidenced by the lack of local support for extremist rhetoric.
India’s security apparatus has significantly improved its counter-terrorism capabilities. State and central agencies are adept at tracking and neutralizing threats before they materialize.
Pannun’s calls for the “liberation of Punjab” are widely seen as a distraction from the criminal activities of the networks he represents, particularly those linked to drug trafficking and organized crime. Canadian law enforcement recently uncovered a large drug trafficking ring involving members of the Sikh diaspora, many of whom are linked to pro-Khalistan groups.
These activities highlight how some elements of the diaspora are leveraging the Khalistani narrative to shield their mafia-style operations. Pannun’s Khalistan agenda resonates with a small, radicalized section of the Sikh diaspora, primarily in countries like Canada, the US, and the UK. However, his influence in Punjab itself is negligible.
Gurpatwant Singh Pannun’s efforts to reignite the Khalistani movement are unlikely to gain traction in Punjab due to the region’s evolving demographics, socio-political landscape, and the rejection of violence by its people. His actions appear more focused on hiding the criminal activities of networks he associates with rather than pursuing any genuine political or ideological cause.
NOTE: AFI is a proud outsourced content creator partner of IDRW.ORG. All content created by AFI is the sole property of AFI and is protected by copyright. AFI takes copyright infringement seriously and will pursue all legal options available to protect its content.