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SOURCE: JOYDEEP GHOSH / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG

Its’ been over 12 days since Russia attacked Ukraine. Many people are still confused as to why did Russia attack Ukraine in 2022 after capturing Crimea in 2014 and after declaring Luhansk and Donetsk as independent countries in 2022; just a few days before the attack on Ukraine commenced. There are several questions in people’s mind as to why 2 Eastern Slavic countries are fighting each other; why dies Russia wants to demilitarise Ukraine and be always neutral

The answer lies in the breakup of the USSR / Soviet Union and the things that Ukraine has done ever since. After the breakup of the Soviet Union when the smaller former Soviet states became independent nations, they inherited Soviet military hardware, military hardware manufacturing units, nuclear weapons, nuclear delivery systems, and a lot more. All these were initially claimed by Russia, as the rightful heir to the Soviet Union. But then reality dawned in, and Russia decided to let the former soviet states keep the military hardware including tanks, ships, rocket delivery systems, small arms manufacturing units but decided to retain the nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, their stockpile, and maintenance infrastructure. 

Russia Retains Weapons

To formalize this, the Budapest deal was signed as per which former Soviet states handed over nuclear weapons and their delivery systems including everything to Russia. Russia which had retained the firing codes to nuclear weapons was only too happy to regain control over the vast arsenal of nuclear weapons spread across numerous former Soviet states. The deal also cleared the way for former Soviet states to have an independent foreign policy while keeping in mind the security concerns of Russia. Russia also signed separate deals with several of these former Soviet states to take over control of heavy military aircraft of Tupolev class but allowing them to retain Sukhoi and MiG class aircraft alongside Antonov transport aircraft.

Ukraine Refuses

While other former Soviet states duly obliged Russia, Ukraine was a thorn in Russia’s eyes from the very beginning. While other former Soviet states didn’t have too many large military infrastructure manufacturing units, Ukraine was peculiar, as the most industrialized state it not only had huge naval units, ports and naval manufacturing units be it ships, turbines, gearbox, and others; it also had massive military hardware industrial complexes functioning that manufactured everything from Antonov aircraft, its parts, machinery and more as well as cruise missiles, rockets and delivery systems, artillery, tanks, and more; the most of all former Soviet states.

Located on the mouth of the intersection of Russia and Europe, Ukraine provided west/NATO a peek into Russia and Russia a buffer against the expanding west. Any country in such a situation should have played a balancing role but Ukraine made some critical mistakes and played into the hands of Western countries. Egged on by the west, in particular, Bill Clinton led the USA, Ukraine not only provided western scientists and engineers access to former soviet military hardware manufacturing units but also sensitive technology in use in aircraft and ships. 

Russia Loses Hundreds of US$ Billions in Royalty

Despite repeated requests from Russia not to do so, it signed a deal with the west to destroy many Tupolev class aircraft including Tu 22, Tu 95 in exchange for money and perhaps some weapons. That was the start-off moment when Ukraine pissed off Russia. Soviet Russia developed the lone Antonov 225 Mriya, the worlds’ largest flying aircraft but it was Ukraine that was making money flying it to ferry very heavy loads.

Then next came the chance to make big monetary gains courtesy of China. China a technologically deficient country has always resorted to stealing military equipment designs/drawing/ IPS. But with Ukraine it didn’t have to do anything, it just paid money to Ukraine and got its hand on several Russian types of equipment. All this left Russia mighty displeased as it didn’t get a single penny in royalty. Chine bought everything from tanks, artillery, rockets, 3 decommissioned aircraft carriers (now converted to floating hotels and casino) as well as 75% complete Varyag carrier that is now Liaoning, but still no royalty to Russia. 

Next, the Chinese bought the Sukhoi 33 prototype and related schematic / IPR from Ukraine to develop J 15 Shenyang, again with no royalty to Russia. Next Ukraine sold a cruise missile possibly named Korshun including all its schematic/ IPR to China, again no royalty to Russia. Originally developed by Soviet Russia the cruise missiles’ entire setup came into the hands of Ukraine. Then is sold T80 tanks to Pakistan, but no royalty to Russia. Ukraine next sold missile canister knowhow to China, Pakistan, and a few other countries including Israel, again no royalty to Russia.

Next China many acquired Ukrainian companies making military equipment in Ukraine either directly or indirectly, but again no royalty to Russia. But it crossed the limit when China tried to buy Motor Sich, an aircraft engine-making company that eventually forced the even USA to intervene and arm-twist Ukraine to stop its sale. All this forced Russian strongman Vladimir Putin to take a strong stand against Ukraine and teach it a lesson, by 

– Completely deindustrialize Ukraine by dismantling any military hardware industrial manufacturing unit 

– relocating them to Russia if possible

– denuclearize Ukraine, and most importantly 

– deprive Ukraine of any military tech brain that can develop any major weapon system.

Ukraine is Putin’s MIRV

Vladimir Putin has tried to kill many birds with one stone by invading Ukraine. Like a MIRV while the missile has fallen on Ukraine but its MIRV warheads are meant to hit multiple target countries have caused Russia enormous pain.

MIRV1/Target1 – China has caused Russia immense all these years even before the breakup of the Soviet Union. It has blatantly copied Russian weapons to make its versions and sell them worldwide but after Ukraine sold them weapons and tech, they became more brazen with money buying out Ukrainian companies. All this without paying a penny in royalty to Russia. But now with Ukraine completely deindustrialized of any military hardware making unit Russia will finally have China under a tight leash and force it to pay a royalty.

MIRV2/Target2 – NATO despite the end of the Cold War when the Warsaw pact collapsed should have stayed put it expanded east inching closer and closer to Russia. NATO which is a European country alliance though that if we win over Ukraine, we will humiliate Russia, which is economically and militarily weak. But they forgot Russia when pushed to the brink is most dangerous and will do anything and everything that nobody expects it to. Also, Russia has all NATO nations under its thumb courtesy of their dependence on Russian oil and gas. If Russia switches off the tap Europe will suffer from a modern-day ‘ice age’.

MIRV3/Target3 – Ukraine besides China sold missile cannisterisation tech, as well as several other critical techs to many countries including Israel, Pakistan but yet again no royalty to Russia was paid. That Russia is mighty displeased with Israel that it was attacking Syria despite Russian presence was evident when Russia said Golan Heights is an ‘occupied Syrian territory’ a couple of days back. This immediately prompted Israeli PM to visit Russia, ostensibly to talk about the safety of Jews in Ukraine but in reality, to request not to destroy industrial units in Ukraine from which it sources a lot of military hardware and to not muddle its position.

MIRV4/Target4– Russia doesn’t have international policing or territorial ambitions like the USA. It just wants to keep its borders safe from the west with eastern European nations acting as a buffer. Also, it doesn’t want the USA to steal any more of its technology. The USA by dangling money carrot has stolen a lot of Russian technology from Yak 141 that was copied onto F35 B STVOL, as well as Zhuk radar, Mig 25, and Mig 29 tech.

MIRV5/Target5 – By this weekend JCPOA with Iran is expected to be formalized finally again. By attacking Ukraine, Russia has signaled to all countries who are putting pressure on Iran like the USA, Israel not to overdo it as it has strategically invested in Iran just like Syria and will not take kindly undue pressure on that country. 

MIRV6/Target6 – Finally countries and institutions that put sanctions on Russia are forgetting that it isn’t a one-product economy. Many western countries are dependent on Russian exports for one or another thing. Russia has already stated that once it achieves its objective of completely demilitarising, deindustrializing Ukraine it will leave, and this process can take up to 1 year.

Why Russia Hasn’t Captured Ukraine by Now, Ukrainian have Fallen into Russian Trap

Russia has not captured or devastated Ukraine as was expected because this is not the Russian objective. Ukrainian jets are still flying perhaps, Ukrainian sir defense is still active, why. The reason is simple Russia hasn’t committed its main battle-hardened, and battle-ready army columns, or air force. Most are sitting pretty in their bass deep inside Russia. Those Russian soldiers who are being hit or captured are either novice or simply scouts, the Russian idea is to gauge the Ukrainian readiness and capability. Once they fully know their capability Russians are expected to launch a massive assault into Ukraine. 

Even though Ukraine is winning the battle on social media, on-ground it is the Russians who are winning. Ukraine is reporting it has killed so many Russians or destroyed so much equipment, but is refusing to divulge its losses of men and military hardware. All the reports that Ukrainian forces have stalled their progress are false. The 64 km long column outside Kyiv hasn’t moved in intentionally, as Russia wants to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. Even Russian warships haven’t unleashed their terrifying arsenal in full capacity.

Do know Russia has a huge stock of tanks, rocket launchers, APC, jets to expand. It is letting the Ukrainian fire out and empties their arsenal. Once that is done and it is confirmed Ukrainians have no resupply coming in, Russians will calmly move in to destroy every single military-industrial complex in Ukraine, bump off weapon designers, relocate and reassemble whichever unit deems necessary for Russia inside Russian territory. 

Ukraine knows this well and is therefore asking NATO to enforce a ‘No Fly Zone’ and supply of jets, but even after the USA requests East European nations aren’t obliging as they know what will happen if they anger Russia. Do note Russia has already said imposing ‘No Fly Zone’ or providing weapons and jets to Ukraine will be tantamount to participation by that country in the war. It is only a matter of time before Russia enforces a total capitulation of Ukraine, which is expected to come within the next week. Once that happens Putin will calmly put 3 conditions: –

1 Ukraine recognizes Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory.
2 Ukraine will never join NATO and remain a neutral buffer zone between Russia and the West.
3 Pay Russia hundreds of billions of dollars in lost royalty and war expense.

This will have to happen and Russia is in no hurry to enforce Ukraine’s capitulation. Lets’ see how long Ukraine can hold out against Russia.

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Article by JOYDEEP GHOSH ,  cannot be republished Partially or Full without consent from Writer or idrw.org