SOURCE: AFI
India’s role as a major global supplier of artillery ammunition has come under scrutiny following recent Indo-Pakistani clashes and a noticeable pro-Pakistani tilt in European media narratives. Reports indicate that Indian-made 155mm artillery shells have been diverted to Ukraine via European intermediaries, despite New Delhi’s official stance of neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
With escalating tensions with Pakistan, marked by Operation Sindoor and Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes, the persistence of pro-Pakistani sentiment in European media raises strategic and diplomatic concerns about India’s continued, albeit indirect, ammunition supplies to Europe.
Since 2022, India has emerged as a significant player in the global arms market, with its defense industry producing vast quantities of artillery shells, particularly 155mm rounds compatible with NATO-standard howitzers like the M777. While India has not directly supplied ammunition to Ukraine, reports suggest that European countries, including Italy and the Czech Republic, have procured Indian shells and redirected them to Kyiv. Open-source data estimates that nearly 10,000 Indian shells reached Ukraine in 2024, constituting about 1% of Kyiv’s total arms imports.
This indirect supply chain has drawn criticism from Russia, a key strategic partner, with Moscow raising the issue during high-level meetings, including between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Indian counterpart in July 2024. India’s External Affairs Ministry has consistently denied direct exports to Ukraine, emphasizing compliance with end-user agreements that prohibit unauthorized transfers. However, the lack of stringent oversight over European intermediaries has allowed these diversions, placing India in a diplomatically precarious position.
The recent flare-up between India and Pakistan, triggered by a terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, has intensified regional tensions. India’s response, Operation Sindoor, involved precision missile strikes on nine terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing over 80 militants. Pakistan retaliated with drone and missile attacks, including a strike on Noor Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi, escalating the conflict to its most severe level in decades. A fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire was announced on May 10, but violations persist, underscoring the volatility of the situation.
Amid this conflict, European media outlets have displayed a troubling pro-Pakistani bias, often framing India as the aggressor and downplaying Pakistan’s historical support for terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which India accuses of orchestrating the Kashmir attack. Articles in outlets like Politico and European Business Review(“Lessons from the India vs Pakistan air clash: a wake-up call for Europe”) have emphasized Pakistan’s military capabilities, particularly the effectiveness of Chinese-made J-10C fighters and PL-15E missiles, while critiquing India’s actions as escalatory. Such narratives often omit Pakistan’s role in sheltering militants, a point India has repeatedly raised with evidence, including survivor testimonies from the April attack.
This bias is particularly stark given Europe’s reliance on Pakistani ammunition supplies for Ukraine. Since 2022, Pakistan has supplied over 60,000 shells, including 122mm rounds for Grad rocket launchers, through routes involving the UK, Romania, and Poland. The European media’s sympathetic portrayal of Pakistan may be influenced by its role as a critical supplier, creating a double standard that undermines India’s legitimate security concerns.
Strategic Reasons to Halt Ammunition Supplies
- Countering Pro-Pakistani Narratives: The pro-Pakistani slant in European media risks shaping public and policy perceptions against India, particularly in NATO countries that are key arms markets. By continuing to supply ammunition that indirectly supports Ukraine—a cause Europe champions—India inadvertently strengthens the same actors who amplify Pakistan’s narrative. Halting these exports would signal India’s displeasure with Europe’s biased coverage and force a reevaluation of its diplomatic stance.
- Preserving Strategic Autonomy: India’s multi-alignment policy, balancing ties with Russia, the U.S., and Europe, is strained by the ammunition diversions. Russia’s objections to Indian shells reaching Ukraine threaten to erode a decades-long defense partnership, with 65% of India’s weapons purchases over the past two decades sourced from Moscow. Suspending supplies to Europe would reinforce India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, preserving its strategic autonomy and avoiding entanglement in a war that does not directly serve its interests.
- Focusing on Domestic and Regional Needs: The Indo-Pakistani clashes have exposed vulnerabilities in India’s military preparedness, despite recent modernization efforts. With Pakistan’s artillery reserves reportedly depleted to a four-day supply due to exports to Ukraine, India holds a strategic advantage. Redirecting ammunition production to domestic stockpiles and regional allies, such as those in the Indo-Pacific countering China, would better serve India’s security priorities, especially amid the ongoing border standoff with China in eastern Ladakh.
- Leveraging Economic and Diplomatic Clout: India’s defense industry, valued at billions, is a significant economic asset. By pausing ammunition exports, India can pressure European nations to address media biases and align more closely with New Delhi’s security concerns. This move could also encourage Europe to diversify its supply chains, reducing reliance on Pakistan and creating opportunities for Indian firms to negotiate direct, transparent contracts with clear end-user stipulations.
Suspending ammunition supplies to Europe carries risks, including potential economic losses for India’s nascent arms export sector, which sees the Ukraine conflict as an opportunity to expand its global footprint. However, the long-term costs of alienating Russia and fueling anti-India narratives in Europe outweigh short-term gains.
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