SOURCE: AFI
A recent war simulation conducted by a prominent US think tank projects a potentially prolonged conflict between India and China, centering around their contentious border in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. The simulation suggests that if China initiates hostilities with the aim of a quick territorial gain, the conflict could escalate into a decade-long struggle unless China withdraws from the captured Indian territories.
China, leveraging its military might, is expected to launch a swift offensive to alter the border in its favor, reminiscent of the 1962 Sino-Indian War. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would aim for a short, decisive conflict to assert dominance in the region.
Within the first 2-3 months, Indian forces might be pushed back from currently controlled areas due to the PLA’s initial strategic advantage. However, China’s proposal for a ceasefire while retaining captured land would likely be met with rejection from India, unwilling to accept territorial losses or the humiliation associated with such an outcome.
The simulation forecasts that this could lead to a low-intensity conflict lasting for years. The hostility of local populations in captured territories would make it challenging for China to maintain control over the long term, leading to a gradual erosion of the PLA’s territorial gains.
Over the next 1-2 years, India’s defense sector is expected to become more robust and battle-tested. The urgency of the situation would lead to prioritized weapon production, enhanced resource allocation, and strategic planning, bolstering India’s military capabilities.
A significant concern for China would be the demographic toll of sustained warfare. With projections suggesting China’s population could fall below 800 million by 2100, casualties in a prolonged conflict would exacerbate demographic challenges, potentially affecting the PLA’s manpower.
The simulation indicates that a brief conflict with a rapid resolution is only feasible if China agrees to return all captured land to India. However, if China retains even 5-10% of the territory it has seized, the war could drag on, as India would be unlikely to accept such terms.
A long-drawn conflict would reshape the geopolitical landscape in Asia and affect international trade, regional stability, and the strategic calculations of other nations, particularly those in the Indo-Pacific region.
The PLA’s strategy of a short, sharp war could backfire, leading to a drawn-out conflict with no clear winner, especially if China cannot sustain a prolonged military engagement both logistically and politically. The simulation underscores India’s growing stature as a power capable of enduring and countering aggression, highlighting the importance of national resolve and military modernization. The conflict would strain both nations’ economies, potentially leading to international intervention or mediation efforts to broker peace.