SOURCE: SATYAJEET KUMAR/ FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
According to Indian intelligence input coming across the Line of control, nearly 200 local Kashmiri from Pakistan occupied Kashmir has been picked up for arms and military training hinting at possible use of local Kashmiri speaking population has the fodder for possible cross border raids on Indian side of the Kashmir after Indian made constitutional changes to remove special status of the state which now allows New Delhi greater control of the valley.
The Pakistani military is expecting a revolt by locals against the withdrawal of the special status of the state against India but local intelligence reports which Pakistan’s notorious spy agency ISI has submitted to the Pakistani establishment reportedly has said that local uprising will need to be engineered with help from Pakistani side or else Indian forces will be able to take care off minor incidents of violence which pro-Pakistan supported ground workers on instruction of Hurriyat conference plan to carry out .
Pakistani military doesn’t want to be seen as an aggressor at the International stage but wants to showcase their terror push in the Kashmiri has a local uprising against the Indian government which could be Pr disaster for the India which will invite some level of international pressure on India for possible mediation in the matter which not many are interested in.
Dr. Maria Sultan who is Chairman South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SAASI) in the recent media interaction with local tv channels had advocated ‘Million March‘ to the line of control towards Indian Kashmir from Muzaffarabad, the capital city of Pakistani occupied Kashmir to showcase solidarity with Kashmiri on the other side of the line of control. It might sound naive and lunatic to move unarmed civilians near highly LOC which is heavy guarded by Indian Army but they seem to be a well-planned strategy to this madness, a calculated move to use unarmed local Kashmiri as fodder for possible International intervention.
1947 War with Pakistan on Princely state of Jammu and Kashmir began when Pakistan’s Pashtun tribal militias crossed the border of the state and carried out raids on areas which are now part of POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. While after the intervention of the Indian Army, the Pakistani army officially participated in the war but it was unable to push into more areas but managed to hold on areas after the ceasefire which created today’s line of control.
Administration in Pakistani occupied Kashmir have allowed locals to procure and keep with them arms like cheap copies of AK-47 in last few months due to possible cross border operations by Indian Army and due to typical Jihadi mentality against Kafirs, the Pakistani military is not short of volunteers who are willing to take part in cross border raids and with combination of armed and unarmed civilians to be used as fodder, Pakistani military seems to be resorting back to tactics it had first used in 1947 war with India to gain territories which forced UN intervention.
Pakistani military can’t afford a full-scale war with India nor it believes it can take Indian side of Kashmir by force nor it is confident that local Kashmir population on Indian side will be able to rise against Indian forces or even manage to sustain it for long enough before International communities even take notice of it, but Pakistani military will engineer a crisis which will help them. Imagine India being forced to talk to Pakistan due to International pressure will almost be seen as a victory for Pakistan establishment to show to its Awaam even if it gains no areas of the Indian side.
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