SOURCE: AFI
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has underscored a critical lesson for global powers: the era of quick, small conflicts is over. Wars in today’s interconnected and militarily advanced world are prolonged, economically draining, and geopolitically destabilizing. For China, which harbors ambitious plans to claim territories from neighboring countries, including India, this serves as a stark cautionary tale.
When Russia launched its military operations in Ukraine, many anticipated a swift resolution. However, the conflict has devolved into a protracted war, with no clear end in sight. Both sides have suffered immense human and economic losses, with ripple effects being felt globally.
Ukraine has received significant military, financial, and logistical aid from Western countries. A similar scenario could unfold in the event of a conflict between China and India, with India likely receiving substantial international support from democratic nations wary of Chinese aggression.
Sanctions against Russia have shown how global economies can be weaponized, isolating aggressor nations. China, deeply embedded in global trade, would face severe disruptions to its export-driven economy if a conflict were to erupt.
China’s assertive moves along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and its claims over Indian territories such as Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh reflect its aggressive posturing. However, a full-scale conflict with India would be vastly different from its localized skirmishes of the past.
Over the past decades, India has significantly upgraded its military capabilities, including advanced missile systems, indigenous fighter jets, and border infrastructure. This makes India a formidable adversary. India’s partnerships with countries like the United States, France, and Australia through frameworks like QUAD enhance its ability to withstand and counter Chinese aggression. Unlike smaller nations, India’s global partnerships act as force multipliers. Prolonged conflict would have severe implications for China’s economy, which relies heavily on global trade routes. A war with India could disrupt vital supply chains and lead to international sanctions, crippling its economic ambitions. History has shown that prolonged wars often lead to domestic unrest. For a tightly controlled society like China, economic hardships and war fatigue could lead to internal dissent, threatening the Communist Party’s grip on power.
While China may perceive its military and economic might as an advantage, the lessons from the Ukraine-Russia war demonstrate that prolonged conflicts are rarely about initial superiority. The cost of human lives, economic resources, and global standing could outweigh any territorial gains. For China, its ambitions of territorial expansion risk setting off a chain reaction that could damage its long-term growth and geopolitical stability.