SOURCE: AFI
The possibility of China supplying Pakistan with nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) would dramatically alter the strategic balance in South Asia. This scenario would not only enhance Pakistan’s naval and nuclear capabilities but also pose significant security challenges for India, necessitating a carefully calibrated response. Here’s how India might strategically respond:
India could ramp up its diplomatic efforts on international platforms, like the United Nations or within multilateral forums such as the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia), to express concerns about the destabilizing effects of such a transfer.
While bilateral relations are fraught, India might seek to engage in Track II diplomacy or even official channels to address this development, aiming for confidence-building measures that could mitigate the immediate threat escalation.
India will also be interested to Accelerate the induction and development of its own SSBNs, SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines), and SSKs (conventional submarines). Projects like the Arihant-class SSBNs and the indigenous SSN program under Project 75 would become top priorities.
Navy will also need to Intensify focus on ASW capabilities, including the deployment of new ASW frigates, helicopters, and surveillance drones. The Indian Navy would likely increase exercises and training in this domain.
India might need to revisit its nuclear doctrine, especially the “No First Use” policy, to ensure it remains credible in light of a more potent Pakistani sea-based nuclear threat.