SOURCE: AFI
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has issued a stark warning about the risks of nuclear escalation in its 2025 annual report, highlighting the recent India-Pakistan hostilities during Operation Sindoor in May 2025 as a near-catastrophic case study. The report, released on Monday, July 7, 2025, cautions that a combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and rampant disinformation nearly triggered a serious escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. This incident underscores the fragility of nuclear stability in South Asia and the dangers of an emerging global nuclear arms race, as existing arms control frameworks continue to erode.
Operation Sindoor was launched by India in response to a Pakistan-backed terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians. The Indian Air Force (IAF) conducted precision strikes on 11 Pakistan Air Force (PAF) airbases, including Nur Khan, Bholari, and Sargodha, using BrahMos cruise missiles, SCALP missiles, and Harop loitering munitions. The operation also targeted terrorist hubs in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), resulting in the destruction of six PAF fighter jets, two Saab-2000 Erieye AEW&C aircraft, and multiple Chinese-made drones. The IAF’s success in neutralizing Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied HQ-9B and HQ-16 air defense systems exposed vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s defense capabilities.
A critical aspect of the conflict, as highlighted by SIPRI, was the targeting of Pakistan’s Nur Khan airbase, located just over a mile from the headquarters of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The proximity of Indian strikes to nuclear-related infrastructure raised alarm bells, as any perceived threat to Pakistan’s nuclear assets could have prompted a drastic response. Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, noted, “The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis.”
SIPRI’s report emphasizes the role of disinformation in amplifying the risks during Operation Sindoor. Social media platforms, particularly X, were flooded with unverified claims and inflammatory narratives, including exaggerated reports of Indian losses and Pakistani counterstrikes. For instance, Pakistan claimed to have downed five IAF aircraft—three Rafales, one Su-30 MKI, and one MiG-29—using its J-10CE fighters equipped with PL-15E missiles. However, India has not officially confirmed these losses, and the recovery of eight PL-15E missile remnants, including two near-intact units, in Punjab’s Hoshiarpur district suggests the missiles failed to hit their targets, likely due to India’s advanced electronic warfare systems.
The SIPRI report situates the India-Pakistan clash within a broader global context, warning of a “new and potentially more dangerous nuclear arms race.” The report notes that all nine nuclear-armed states—China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—are modernizing their arsenals, with global nuclear warhead counts rising to 12,121 in January 2025, of which 3,824 are deployed. India’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at 172 warheads, while Pakistan’s stands at approximately 170, with both nations expanding their capabilities through new delivery systems and warhead designs.
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