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SOURCE: AFI

In the simulated war scenario where the Indian Air Force (IAF) plans to strike the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) base at Sargodha with over 120 Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles (ALBMs) within the first 24 hours of conflict, the implications and outcomes could be profound.

The mission begins with IAF aircraft, likely Mirage 2000 or Su-30MKI, taking off from various bases across northern India. These planes, equipped with ALBMs, would fly close to the border or perhaps even enter Pakistani airspace covertly at low altitudes to avoid detection by PAF radar systems. The ALBMs, unlike traditional cruise missiles, would provide a ballistic trajectory advantage, allowing for a steep descent onto the target, reducing the time for defensive countermeasures.

Sargodha, known as the nerve center of PAF, houses significant operational and training facilities, including the Combat Commanders’ School. The sheer volume of missiles aimed at this location would suggest an intention to cripple PAF’s operational capabilities early in the conflict. Upon reaching the launch point, the IAF would release these missiles in waves, targeting not just the runways to prevent aircraft from taking off but also hangars, fuel depots, and command centers.

The immediate aftermath would likely see:

  • Destruction of Infrastructure: Runways would be cratered, hangars demolished, and key operational centers compromised, potentially grounding a significant portion of the PAF’s fleet.
  • Casualties and Loss of Equipment: There would be substantial human and material losses for the PAF, affecting morale and operational readiness.
  • PAF Response: In retaliation, PAF might launch counterstrikes on Indian airbases or attempt to scramble whatever aircraft remain serviceable. They could also deploy their own missile systems or utilize electronic warfare to disrupt further IAF operations.
  • Escalation: This strike would likely lead to rapid escalation. Pakistan might invoke nuclear threats or engage in broader military actions, including ground incursions or naval operations, to shift the dynamics of the conflict.
  • International Reaction: Global powers would react, with immediate calls for de-escalation. The United States, China, and possibly the United Nations would engage in diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from expanding into a larger regional war.
  • IAF’s Follow-Up: The IAF would need to be prepared for counterattacks, maintaining air superiority, and possibly engaging in further strategic strikes if the initial assault doesn’t achieve the desired strategic paralysis.

In this scenario’s outcome, while the IAF might achieve a significant tactical victory by degrading PAF’s capabilities, the strategic landscape would become highly volatile. The first 24 hours could set the tone for a prolonged conflict with unpredictable outcomes, including the possibility of broader regional involvement or even the invocation of nuclear deterrence policies. The effectiveness of the strike would also depend on the actual damage caused, the response time and efficiency of PAF’s recovery operations, and the broader geopolitical context at the time of the conflict.

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