SOURCE: AFI
Japan has recently proposed forming a security alliance—often referred to as an “Asian NATO”—with the United States, India, and other key Indo-Pacific nations to counter China’s growing influence and assertiveness in the region. The idea has stirred debate within Indian strategic circles, raising important questions about India’s role in regional security, the benefits and risks of a more formalized military alliance, and the impact of such an alliance on India’s complex relationship with China.
The idea of an “Asian NATO” refers to a formalized regional security pact, akin to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which would commit member countries to collective defense against threats, primarily from China. Although the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) comprising India, Japan, Australia, and the United States serves as a security forum, it is not a formal military alliance and avoids direct defense commitments. Japan’s proposal aims to go further, potentially establishing a structured alliance for joint defense and coordinated military strategies across the Indo-Pacific.
Pros of India Joining an Asian NATO
1. Enhanced Security and Deterrence against China
- A formal alliance would signal a unified stance against China’s growing military presence, particularly in the South and East China Seas. With China’s increasing naval exercises and territorial claims, India’s participation in an “Asian NATO” could add substantial deterrence, leveraging the combined military might of member countries.
- Access to intelligence-sharing networks and coordinated defense planning could give India an edge in monitoring Chinese military activities along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in the broader Indo-Pacific region.
2. Strengthened Strategic Partnerships
- Joining a formal alliance would solidify India’s relationships with Japan, the United States, Australia, and other countries concerned with China’s assertive behavior. This would provide India with new security and economic opportunities through strengthened ties with leading global powers.
- An “Asian NATO” could improve India’s defense technology access, facilitating collaboration on advanced weapons systems, cyber defenses, and other critical military capabilities.
3. Support for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific
- India has consistently emphasized the importance of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” as a critical principle of its foreign policy. A formal alliance would provide a platform to enforce this principle, ensuring freedom of navigation and countering any attempts by China to control critical maritime routes.
- Such an alliance would allow India to assert its position as a regional power, bolstering its influence in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific and enhancing its standing in the international community.
4. Defense Readiness and Joint Training Exercises
- A formal alliance could lead to an increase in joint military exercises, improving the Indian military’s preparedness and interoperability with partner forces. Shared training, intelligence, and logistics can enhance India’s defense readiness and give it valuable experience in coordinated operations across multiple domains.
Cons of India Joining an Asian NATO
1. Risk of Escalating Tensions with China
- India’s inclusion in a formalized anti-China alliance could lead to immediate tensions and confrontations along the LAC and in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China may respond with increased military pressure on India’s borders, putting India’s resources and readiness to the test.
- China could interpret India’s participation as a direct challenge, potentially pushing Beijing to strengthen its alliances with Pakistan or deepen its military presence in neighboring countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka.
2. Limiting India’s Strategic Autonomy
- India has traditionally valued its non-aligned stance, pursuing strategic autonomy that allows it to make independent policy decisions. Joining a formal alliance could restrict India’s ability to act independently, particularly if alliance obligations conflict with India’s national interests.
- As part of a collective defense pact, India might be expected to support other members’ positions or military actions, even if they don’t directly align with India’s priorities. This could force India into conflicts it might otherwise avoid.
3. Potential Strain on Economic Relations with China
- China remains one of India’s largest trading partners, and membership in an “Asian NATO” could jeopardize economic ties that are crucial for India’s growth. China could retaliate with economic measures, potentially impacting Indian businesses, technology imports, and infrastructure investments.
- Additionally, given China’s significant investments in global supply chains, joining an anti-China alliance might affect India’s trade relations with countries that rely on Chinese manufacturing and markets.
4. Domestic and Regional Backlash
Regionally, countries that maintain neutral or positive ties with China, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, may be wary of India’s involvement in a formalized alliance. This could impact India’s relationships with ASEAN countries, as they may perceive it as a departure from India’s traditionally balanced approach in the region.
At home, joining a military alliance could face political pushback from factions that favor non-alignment. There is also a risk of public opposition, with sections of Indian society concerned about entangling the country in superpower rivalries.