SOURCE: DEEPAK HILORI/ FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
According to western media reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping is carefully watching the situation unfolding in the Russian-Ukraine war like a Hawk and is asking his top commanders to learn from the mistakes done by the Russian forces while invading Ukraine but the longevity of the war and unhindered continuous supply of western weapons and ammunition as pushed Chinese own plans to take on India and Taiwan in small and swift wars for its political gains in limbo.
Xi is not a popular man anymore in China with intention of pressing for a third term he already has rattled many insiders of his party creating fractions within who are working against him and the interest of China. The only wild card that Xi might want to test to unite China and also ensure he continued to remain in power is to win a swift war in the region that could make him popular again.
The Chinese economy is under stress and Xi’s Zero covid policy is ensuring more lockdowns and restrictions that are further creating stress points for the economy. Xi needs a diversion and he might be tempted to show aggression in the region by trying to win a war to deflect from its issue at home and a pendulum sword is on top of both Taiwan and India for the last few months with no clear indication where it will fall.
War with Taiwan seems easy but it might result in a full-scale intervention of the western military powers which the Chinese do not want but Chinese calculation could go wrong if Taiwan puts up resistance like Ukraine even without the military intervention of the west. Chinese forces have been training for swift war to take over Taiwan but if the Chinese have learned anything from the war in Ukraine, overwhelming conventional power simply doesn’t guarantee a swift win, and war might rage on for months and might backfire on Xi and his supporters.
Galwan incident might have been a test case for the Xi but since then Indian military has been able to match troops to troops in numbers and also has speeded up its deployment and procurement of weapons in anticipation of the war. A short war with India without taking any areas might be possible in near future but it might result in a full-fledged war which the Chinese might not want since it can prolong the duration of the war.
President Xi in his lust for power already has derailed Chinese economic growth, which has already seen some unrest, with his badly timed policies like a war in the region where Chinese is the aggressor will only fast track the downward trend of its economy but the upward trend of the Chinese economy growth recorded for the last 30+ years has kept enough in the coffers that can keep them steady for next 25-30 years even if Xi remains in power for next 10 years but any misadventure now might shorten that steadiness by 10-15 years for the Chinese economy.