SOURCE: AFI
The March 9, 2022, incident involving an Indian BrahMos missile landing near Mian Channu in Pakistan’s Punjab province has resurfaced as a subject of intense scrutiny, with conflicting narratives challenging the initial explanation of a “fluke firing.” Initially reported as an accidental launch from Ambala, Haryana, the missile crossed into Pakistan via the Suratgarh border, tracing a trajectory that included a striking 90° turn. Plotted on Google Earth, the missile’s path suggests it traveled approximately 124 kilometers within Pakistani airspace over 3 minutes and 44 seconds, reaching a speed of around Mach 1.6. Remarkably, it caused no significant damage, with local accounts indicating it impacted an unpopulated area.
Official statements from India at the time attributed the incident to a technical malfunction during routine maintenance, a claim supported by a subsequent Court of Inquiry that led to the dismissal of three Indian Air Force officers for procedural lapses. Pakistan, while condemning the breach of its airspace, tracked the missile’s flight and noted its unarmed status, avoiding escalation. The missile’s unusual maneuver—a sharp turn mid-flight—raised eyebrows, but the lack of casualties or destruction was widely seen as a fortunate outcome, averting a potential crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
However, more than two years later, the Pakistan-based Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) released a report challenging this narrative. The study, published in 2024, asserts that the firing was not an accident but a deliberate test by India to gauge Pakistan’s radar and air defense response. CISS argues that the pre-programmed target data linked to Mian Channu and the missile’s live state during transport suggest a controlled experiment rather than a malfunction. The report claims Pakistan’s radars failed to detect or intercept the BrahMos effectively, exposing vulnerabilities in its air defense network.
This reinterpretation has ignited debate. The CISS findings contrast with India’s official stance and the technical explanation of a misfire due to combat connectors remaining attached to the junction box, as later revealed by the Indian Air Force. Critics of the CISS report question its timing and motive, suggesting it may reflect Pakistan’s effort to counter India’s growing missile prowess, particularly after successful BrahMos exports to nations like the Philippines. Conversely, the report’s emphasis on the missile’s pre-set trajectory and Pakistan’s restrained response fuels speculation about a possible trial balloon, a theory echoed by some independent analysts.
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