SOURCE: AFI
The political landscape in Canada has been witnessing a significant shift, with the possibility of a Khalistani sympathizer ascending to the role of Prime Minister in the near future. This scenario, while speculative, is grounded in the increasing influence of the Sikh community within Canadian politics and the vocal support for Khalistani causes by certain political figures.
Here’s an analysis of this potential development and its repercussions on India-Canada relations.
Canada hosts one of the largest Sikh populations outside India, with Sikhs making up a significant portion of the electorate in key areas like Ontario and British Columbia. This demographic has increasingly influenced Canadian politics, with figures like Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party (NDP) gaining prominence. Singh, known for his pro-Khalistani stances, has already played a pivotal role in Canadian politics as the NDP leader.
The possibility of a Khalistani PM largely depends on political alliances and the dynamics of Canadian coalition governments. If current trends continue, where parties like the NDP hold the balance of power, a leader with Khalistani sympathies could potentially become a compromise candidate or even lead a coalition government.
The current strained relations between India and Canada, accentuated by incidents like the killing of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar and subsequent diplomatic expulsions, have highlighted the Khalistani issue within Canadian political discourse. This has not only galvanized the Khalistani vote but also brought the issue to the forefront of international relations.
If a Khalistani sympathizer becomes Canada’s PM, it could lead to further deterioration of India-Canada relations. Issues like the recognition of Khalistani activism, support for referendums on Khalistan, or the harboring of extremists could become more pronounced, potentially leading to diplomatic standoffs, trade disruptions, and a decrease in security cooperation.
India has long viewed Canada as a safe haven for Khalistani elements advocating for separatism or involved in activities against India’s interests. A PM sympathetic to these causes might embolden such activities, posing a direct security threat to India, especially in Punjab, where Khalistani sentiments have historically been strong.
Trade and investment between India and Canada could suffer. The 2023 Canada-India diplomatic row already saw the suspension of trade missions and visa services. An escalation in political rhetoric could further jeopardize economic ties, particularly in sectors like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and IT, where both countries have mutual interests.
The Indian diaspora in Canada, which includes a significant number of non-Sikh Indians, might face community tensions, especially if Khalistani politics become more mainstream. This could lead to social unrest or even acts of violence within Canada.
Canada’s foreign policy could shift towards a more critical stance against India on international platforms, potentially affecting India’s global image, particularly in human rights discussions or at forums like the UN.