SOURCE: AFI
The recent India-Pakistan conflict, dubbed Operation Sindoor (May 7–10, 2025), has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Chinese-supplied military hardware, casting a shadow over China’s aspirations to dominate the global arms market and its strategic plans for a potential invasion of Taiwan. Pakistan, heavily reliant on Chinese weapons, including J-10C fighters, PL-15E missiles, and HQ-9P air defense systems, faced a decisive defeat against India’s advanced Western and indigenous systems, with the Indian Air Force (IAF) penetrating deep into Pakistani territory.
This poor showing, highlighted by analysts and social media posts, raises serious questions about the combat readiness of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its ability to execute a complex operation like a Taiwan invasion, where it would face superior U.S. and allied forces. The implications of this failure could reshape regional security dynamics and challenge Beijing’s military credibility.
Operation Sindoor, launched by India in response to a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, that killed 26 civilians, saw the IAF execute precision strikes on 11 Pakistani airfields, terrorist camps, and air defense systems, including the Nur Khan airbase near Islamabad. The IAF deployed Rafale jets with Xgard decoys, Harop loitering munitions, and BrahMos-A missiles, neutralizing key targets with minimal losses. Pakistan claimed to have downed five Indian aircraft, including three Rafales, using Chinese J-10C jets and PL-15E missiles, but Indian officials and analysts, including Jane’s Defense Weekly, assert these were likely Xgard decoys, not actual jets.
Pakistan’s arsenal, over 80% Chinese-supplied, included the J-10C Vigorous Dragon, JF-17 Thunder, PL-15E air-to-air missiles, HQ-9P and HQ-16 air defense systems, and Wing Loong II drones. However, these systems underperformed significantly.
Pakistan’s HQ-9P and HQ-16 air defense systems, designed to counter advanced threats, failed to intercept Indian BrahMos and SCALP missiles, allowing strikes deep into Punjab and near Islamabad. Posts on X, including from @FrustIndian , described this as a “humiliating outing” for Chinese technology, with radars failing to detect Indian assets. The IAF’s use of Tata’s ALS-250 loitering munitions and Harop drones further overwhelmed Pakistan’s defenses, highlighting deficiencies in Chinese counter-drone and radar systems.
Chinese drones, such as the Wing Loong II, priced at $1–2 million compared to the $30–40 million MQ-9 Reaper, were cost-effective but lacked the survivability and precision of Western systems.
China’s ambitions to annex Taiwan by 2027 hinge on the PLA’s ability to achieve air and naval superiority against U.S. and allied forces, including Taiwan’s F-16Vs and Japan’s F-35s. The poor performance of Chinese weapons in Operation Sindoor raises serious doubts about their reliability in a high-intensity conflict. Taiwan’s defense posture, heavily reliant on U.S.-supplied systems like the F-16 and Patriot missiles, is designed to counter PLA assets, including J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles, which patrol the Taiwan Strait. The failure of these systems against India’s Rafales and EW tactics suggests they would struggle against more advanced adversaries.
- Air Defense Vulnerabilities: The HQ-9P’s failure to intercept Indian missiles mirrors potential weaknesses in China’s HQ-9 and HQ-22 systems, critical for defending against U.S. and Taiwanese missile barrages in a Taiwan scenario. Taiwan’s AGM-88 HARM missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles could exploit similar gaps, as noted by Yun Sun of the Stimson Center, who cautioned that the India-Pakistan conflict is not directly comparable but highlights PLA vulnerabilities
- Fighter Jet Limitations: The J-10C’s WS-10B engines, less efficient than the Rafale’s Snecma M88-2, and its lower payload and survivability, as noted in NDTV’s analysis, suggest it would struggle against Taiwan’s F-16Vs, which have combat-proven AN/APG-83 AESA radars. The PL-15E’s malfunctions indicate that even the domestic PL-15, with a 200–300 km range, may not counter U.S. AIM-120D AMRAAMs effectively.
- Electronic Warfare Gaps: India’s Xgard decoys, which spoofed Pakistan’s KLJ-7A AESA radars, exposed China’s lag in EW countermeasures. In a Taiwan conflict, U.S. EA-18G Growlers and Taiwan’s E-2K AWACS could similarly disrupt PLA radar and missile guidance, as suggested by Brendan Mulvaney of the China Aerospace Studies Institute.
- Lessons for PLA Modernization: China likely used its spy satellites and fishing militia in the Indian Ocean to gather intelligence during the conflict, as reported by Reuters. However, the failure of its systems to perform under combat conditions could force the PLA to reassess its training and integration, particularly for the Rocket Force, which relies on missiles like the DF-21D for anti-ship roles in a Taiwan invasion.
The conflict was seen as a showcase for Chinese weapons, with Pakistan as Beijing’s top arms customer, accounting for 63% of China’s $8.2 billion in exports from 2020–2024. Initial claims of J-10C success led to a 40% surge in AVIC Chengdu Aircraft’s stock, fueled by Chinese social media hype. However, the subsequent exposure of equipment failures, as reported by NDTV and X posts, has dented China’s credibility. Countries like Algeria, Egypt, and Sudan, targeted by China to replace Russian arms markets, may reconsider purchases if systems like the HQ-9P and PL-15E are deemed unreliable.
The financial impact is significant. Chinese bloggers criticized Pakistan’s “inadequate training” for the failures, but past issues with Chinese hardware—Myanmar grounding J-7 jets in 2022 and Bangladesh’s complaints about defective equipment—suggest systemic quality issues. The contrast with India’s Rafale ($288 million/unit) and indigenous systems like the Tata ALS-250 underscores the cost-performance gap, as Western systems like the MQ-9 Reaper ($30–40 million) outperformed cheaper Chinese drones.
Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security Research has taken note, with analysts like Shu Hsiao-Huang warning that the PLA’s air combat capabilities may need reassessment but are not yet on par with U.S. forces. A Taiwan invasion would involve naval and marine elements, unlike the air-centric India-Pakistan conflict, but the failure of Chinese air defenses and missiles against India suggests challenges in a multi-domain war. Taiwan’s F-16Vs, upgraded with AESA radars, and U.S. naval assets like the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group would likely exploit these weaknesses, as noted by Business Insider.
India’s success in Operation Sindoor, using a mix of French, Russian, and indigenous systems, reinforces its role as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. The IAF’s “two-front” planning, anticipating simultaneous threats from Pakistan and China, will likely intensify, with investments in systems like the LR-LACM and ALS-250 to counter PLA assets. The conflict also highlights India’s edge in EW and unmanned systems, which could inform Taiwan’s defense strategies against PLA incursions.
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